A Word About Value - Pt. I

Sentiments do not win games. History does not strikeout batters. A name can't hit a home run. Sure, some of the above can tip the odds in your favor, and in baseball, it's all about the odds. But only numbers, and their associate meanings, can truly provide a forecast into a player's potential in the coming seasons. Every offseason, this fact seems to be lost on General Managers and team owners. Everyone throws sick money at mediocre players. I know it's a crazy market out there, and you have to compete with rich teams, so you have to overpay. But if it's between not having Barry Zito, and paying Barry $18 million a year over seven years, you go with not having Barry. Andruw Jones is another good lesson as well. This year, we're going to look at some free agents and decide how much they're really worth. I'm not going to pick the top agents, but I'll look at some ones that managers might not be able to restrain themselves with. We'll follow this up with some more in a few more days.

1) Mark Teixeira - 1B. Age: 28. 2008 Salary: $12.5 Million.
2008 Stats: 33 HR, 12 RBI, 97 BB, .308 AVG, .410 OBP, .552 SLG.
Let me just start by saying this -- here is one dude you cannot overpay for. He's a switch hitter. He's a solid defender at first. He is a masher. He is, by all accounts, a good guy. He is, for the most part, the model of consistency. If you get Tex on a bad year, he goes .300, 30 HR, 110 RBI. And the dude is about to turn 29. It seems to me like you could lock him up easy for about $15 million, 5-7 years. That would be the low end, but I can see him going for a little more.

2) CC Sabathia - P. Age: 28. 2008 Salary: $11 Million.
2008 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 251 K's, 1.11 WHIP, .237 BAA, 253 IP.
Someone is going to get burned on this guy. Sure, Sabathia went nuts this year. You might be curious to know, however, that this is the first sub-3.00 ERA year for CC. By comparison, go-to stunner Jake Peavy, with seven years under his belt (one fewer than CC,) has four sub-3.00 ERA years. Everyone has this perception that CC is horse; however, he has only gone above 200 IP twice; in 2007, he goes 241, and in 2008, 253. And, if history tells us anything, it's that you can't make a pitcher pitch forever without his arm falling off at some point. (A.J. Burnett is also relevant here). CC simply cannot keep up that pace. He is still a good pitcher, but I don't think we're dealing with a Roger Clemens here. Remember, Sabathia relies totally on power, and power pitchers do not age well. Clemens and Randy are exceptions, because they are freaks. I think it would be fair to give the Kid 5 years at $15 million. And I guarantee you he will get more.

3) A.J. Burnett - P. Age: 31. 2008 Salary: $13.2 Million.
2008 Stats: 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 231 K's, 1.34 WHIP, .249 BAA, 221 IP.
I love A.J. Really, I do. But mark my words -- this guy is going to be the bust of the year. And that's saying a lot, looking at the free agents on the market this year. Someone might end up overpaying for Milton Bradley or Rafael Furcal. The Jays paid dearly for Burnett and he burned them bad. Get this: Burnett lands on the Jays roster in 2006, and makes $2.2 Million. He goes 10-8, starting in only 21 games. 3.98 ERA. What does he get in return? Two years, $13.2 million a year. More of the same in 2007 and 2008, but without the injuries in 2008. You think it's a coincidence that A.J. felt fine during his contract year? That's another thing that bugs me about Burnett; dude is always hurting. I used to know how many times he had been on the DL, but I can't keep track anymore. It's easily above 12. While he was in Toronto, there were rumors that he wasn't quite as hurt as he was claiming. As in, the GM publicly said that "he's going to have to pitch through some pain, or realize what the difference is between being hurt and really being hurt." And that's the worst thing people can be saying about you.

As ESPN notes, "The bigger concern with Burnett is what version of Burnett you're actually getting... he performs better when the pressure is off." Couldn't have said it better myself. His stuff is filthy. And if you watch him pitch five innings, you would think he was the second coming of Feller. But then you watch him for the sixth, and you have to rub your eyes to make sure it's the same guy. He always gives in to the big inning, and you never know what inning it's going to be. The result is some year-end numbers that aren't so awesome. He has a lot of arm and shoulder problems, and this is what usually throws him on the DL. So he is really a grab bag of problems. Sign him for $10 million and 3 years, and next time he goes on the DL, bring him off as a closer. PS - he's a power pitcher, and he's already 31. Say it with me...

One more note: It's the offseason, so there isn't a whole lot more to write about. I am working on finishing the transfer of all the material from the old site, dating back to 2004... I'm up to June 2006. So warm your hands over that material. Seriously, the archives are some of the funniest things you will ever read. This will get you started:
Congratulations, Washington - April 13, 2007

If Someone Handed you $15 Million... - May 2, 2008
Labels: Andruw Jones - Various
Labels: Mark Prior - Various
A.J. Burnett Keeps Coming Up... - July 6, 2007

Mets Struggle - Episode II

Much was made of the Met's collapse last year. Much has been made of their collapse this year as well. Why the repeat in coverage? If you're anything like myself, you know that one collapse wasn't enough. In fact, after the Mets destroyed themselves last year, it left me wanting one thing -- more. Much more. There is a certain synergy about back-to-back collapses. They're made that much more powerful when they act in concert. How hilarious is it that, knowing full-well that they pulled off the Ultimate Choke Job in 2007, the Mets are on their way to pulling off a repeat?

For example, playing Bill Buckner at first base in the late innings of, say, Game 6 of a World Series, would probably be asking for trouble. Now the Mets are in a similar situation. Omar -- maybe, heading into the twilight of the season, you could have picked up a pitcher or two, I mean, given your teams' propensity for late-season collapses and all. Instead, Omar went with the, "I think what we have now is good enough to bring us to October." Nice try.

But, again, I like this. This is like a movie that you saw a year ago, and it was hilarious, and you really enjoyed it. And then, the movie was re-released a year later, and you had to go see it because you loved it so much the first time. And, watching the movie the second time, you realized that it was even funnier the second time around. Here's the thing -- the Mets aren't out of this thing yet. There is still hope. But if these guys do manage to finagle their way into a playoff spot, you can bet they're going out in three games. It's almost like these guys have somewhere else to be in October. Anyone ever seen the South Park episode where the kids try to sabotage their baseball season so they can go home and watch TV instead?

I have only one question -- who's up for a three-peat?

The Yanks are coming... Maybe...

The following piece is a column from one of our guest writers, Geoff, who runs the Bleeding Pinstripes. Visit his site and give him the TABC bump.

I’ve been promising my boy Reid a piece for a while now on the Yankees’ chances this year, and since I’m waiting for my iPhone to back up anyway, here goes.

First let’s get up to speed on where we are. My thought going into the recent brutal road trip, and even the few series’ before (Boston, Minnesota, Anaheim, Baltimore) was that the Yankees season would take shape by the time they got back.

Not good news.

And last week I was screaming for the Yankees to send Melky down to triple A, as I saw his usefulness solely as an outfielder and a pinch runner; two roles I felt Brett Gardiner was better suited for. And I was railing against starting Richie Sexson against lefties, preferring to see him strictly used as a pinch hitter. So what happens next? Melky gets demoted, Gardiner is recalled, and Sexson is waived.

Worse news.

I know. Sounds a bit off. I’m contradicting myself. But the truth is – what do I know? Nothing. I was the guy screaming for Tony Womack to get more playing time in ’05; that Robinson Cano was a useless rookie. I was the guy saying that Posada was going to fade last year and end up at .270. That David Archuleta was going to get voted off the second week of American Idol because he was such a drippy little wuss. I shouldn’t be right. This can’t be good...

So what are the Yanks’ chances? If you ask me, it always comes down to one key thing. Schedule. It’s huge before the season even starts. Look at the Yankees. Every year they play the Angels ten times. And always predominantly on the road. Like clockwork. It’s a marquee match-up, and the Angels are the one and only team that have had the Yankees’ number. You think MLB is going to pass that up? Since the days of the unbalanced schedule, there is only one team outside of their division that the Yankees have played ten times. Yup. And it happens almost every year. And it’s not just the Yankees. The schedule tells a lot of tales before the first pitch on the first Sunday night. Look at the Mets. Every year they play six brutal games against the Yankees. They lost the NL East to the Phillies on the last day of the season last year. Do you think the Phillies still would have pulled that off if they were forced to play the Yankees six times while the Mets got to kick around Baltimore and whoever else? How about the Blue Jays? They were way better than the Cardinals when the final out was called on the 2006 regular season. Better record, better team, you name it. They just had the misfortune of being fed to the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times. So the Jays don’t even approach the playoffs, and the Cardinals get a shot at upset glory. While we’re at it, the Red Sox might be the best example. Good enough to win two World Championships in four years, good enough to elicit whispers of “dynasty?” around the sports world. Imagine. They’ve only won their own division once in the last thirteen years. And even that was on the strength of exactly one swing game with the mighty Yankees. Point is, the schedule is huge. And it gets more huge as the games get ticked off and teams make moves to shore themselves up for the stretch run as we hit the last weeks of August.

So with that said, the theme for the last twenty-three Yankee games was to simply hang on. This looked to be their most difficult stretch of the season. Three at Boston, three against Minnesota, four against LA, three against Baltimore, four at Texas, three more at LA, and three in Minnesota to close it. Twenty-three brutal games. And as I said, it didn’t exactly go swimmingly. They were 10-7 in the first 17. Then they needed to grasp and clutch for some wins while Boston and Tampa played the Royals and Seattle, over and over. They didn’t. They lost 5 of 6, with the lone win coming in 12 innings. So now they’re a big pile of games behind Boston and a big pile of games behind Tampa.

So what’s next. Tampa is going to lose. Probably a lot. Tampa is not a good road team. They’ve been good lately, but that’s mostly because they’ve played the Royals, the Mariners, and the recently castrated A’s. They did a great job of seizing on a bizarre schedule that featured a lopsided number of early games at home. When they get back East they’re going to lose. They’re going to lose to the Yankees and they’re going to lose to the Red Sox. Especially since they’ve been riddled with injuries that aren’t going to get better. The problem is they’re so far out in front it might not matter. To the Yankees, anyway. I think the Red Sox are going to catch them. The Red Sox aren’t going to lose any ground. They don’t play well on the road either, but they’re a veteran team that has incredible resilience and knows how to win. They’re loaded with tough outs and they’re never out of a ballgame. But they’ve also been bitten by injuries, which is going to keep them from the World Series, but I think they win the East.

So can the Yankees catch the Rays and everyone else in front of them for the Wildcard? They could. But it’s going to be so difficult to make up all that ground. On paper they are more talented than anybody outside of the Red Sox and the Angels. And they, too, are a proud veteran team that always seems to find a gear to get there. I think they need to get Hughes back healthy (I’m not even going to mention Pavano, because that truly would be hilarious), and they need to get Joba back healthy. And if they get the Ferocious Lion, Hideki Matsui, back in any meaningful way, they could make a run. The schedule includes lots of Boston (always difficult but never scary for the Yankees this time of year), and three more against the Angels (0-3). Other than that there are a lot of winnable games against beatable teams.

Bottom line: unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

We’re probably looking at the Angels feeding on the hapless National League to give Mike Scoscia his second piece of Orange County hardware. Probably. But probably isn’t definitely. That’s why they play the games, as the old saying goes. What I can say definitely, is that my boys and I will be waving the flag in section 24 at the Stadium until the last pitch is thrown. Right until the end.

And we’ll be rooting like hell for the Yankees to win the World Series.

Thanks to Geoff. Again, visit his blog, the Bleeding Pinstripes.

Rocky Road (Bleeding Pinstripes) - August 12th, 2008

"It's time to put all the women and children to bed"

Some of you may remember an article that appeared in the October 11, 2004 issue of Sports Illustrated. The article was titled, "Swinging Away," and it was an inside look at Gary Sheffield. In the article, Tom Verducci recalls that, in Gary's first season with the Yankees in 2004, he was hitting only .265, with three home runs in 44 games. Gary felt as if the Yankees didn't want him on their team. So he went to Joe Torre's office, and talked it over. When he emerged, he called his uncle, Dwight Gooden, and exclaimed, "They ain't seen me hit yet, but I'm about to get started. It's time to put all the women and children to bed."

This is possibly one of the best quotes that will appear here on TABC. Right up there with, "it makes my head explode," or, "You say 'bullpen by committee' and that sounds like everybody, and it's not everybody," or, "walks just clog the bases for guys that can actually run." However, what really sets this line apart from the others is what happened after. That night, Sheffield smacked four hits and drove in six runs. The following night, he had another three hits. In the rest of the season, he drove in 102 runs in 110 games, and hit 33 home runs.

All this, believe it or not, fits into the current conflagration with Gary Sheffield here in Detroit. Gary Sheffield, I have always said, can hit on command. For the most part, he hits what he wants, when he wants. In Detroit, he has been swinging for the fences, every time up. He's eight homers away from 500, and he desperately wants to get there. He's hitting .220, and he strikes out 25% of the time he steps up to the plate. I was at the game on Monday night, and every time Sheffield stepped up he was booed, tremendously. he was booed when he flied out, when he struck out looking, and hell, he was even booed when he drew a walk. He was then placed on waivers. The next game -- Tuesday -- Sheffield hit two home runs.

I've always wondered why the Tigers signed Sheffield. He's 39 years old. And now it looks as if they won't be able to move him, even on waivers, ($30 million contract?) And is it any wonder? Sheffield went public with comments that he's unhappy with the role he's playing on this team. When he signed in Detroit, he did so with the explicit understanding that he would be doing a lot of DH-ing. He was put in left when the Tigers released Jacque Jones. He couldn't play left, because he couldn't throw the ball. He now complains that he is part of a platoon. As Jim Leyland so eloquently put it, "anybody who has a brain knows that's not a platoon." Unfortunately, this looks really bad for Gary. I can understand where he is coming from -- he wants more playing time, and although he didn't say it, he probably believes he would play better if he was a regular starter. Unfortunately, you can't start a guy everyday who can't field and hits .220.

At some point, Gary is going to have to accept his role as a part time DH. He simply can't produce at the level he used to, because he's gotten old. It can't be easy for a guy who was a star to realize that he is now a low-level support player, but that's what he needs to do. And after that, he should hit his 500th home run, take a bow, and calmly exit the venue.

Swinging Away (Sports Illustrated) - October 11th, 2004
"It makes my head explode" - June 12th, 2007
Kerry Wood and Dusty Baker - May 1st, 2005

Is Manny apprised of his own situation?

The last few weeks have seen a resurgence of Manny-talk throughout the country. But I have just one question -- in the midst of all of this, has anyone mentioned how awkward it is that Joe Torre is managing Manny Ramirez? In fact, is Manny even aware of it himself? Joe Torre's new star is the man that likely precipitated his demise in New York. This fact appears totally lost on Manny Ramirez.

But this is just where the fun starts. Recall that Manny has, in the past several years, demanded trades from Boston. Remember that, two days after being traded to Los Angeles, the jovial Ramirez explained that, "I like this city, the environment, the energy, the fans. I think that I'll play here for the remainder of my career." But now, Manny want out of Los Angeles.

Apparently, unnamed sources  have indicated that Manny wants to sign next year with the Yankees. Even more interesting, they claim that Manny's chief reason for doing so would be to get back at the Red Sox. This seems like typical Manny bull-headed-ness. "I want out of Boston. I love LA. I want out of LA. I want into New York." I fear that moving to so many new places might really confuse him.

The Yankees have to at least try to sign the guy if he comes their way, right? You'd be stupid not to, right? Personally, I don't think it will even be an issue. From what I gather, there is about a one in a million chance that Manny actually knows what team he is playing for, where he lives, what he's doing, etc. He just goes where they tell him to, but once he gets into the box, he's in his own world. If they throw some money at the guy -- which the Dodgers seem to do with alarming ease -- they can keep him around until he turns 60.

The Greatest Play of All Time - February 28th, 2006
What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond? - August 4, 2008

Vlad Guerrero has destroyed your fantasy team

If you are like 100% of fantasy owners, you own Vladimir Guerrero. And, unless your league rewards points for mediocre play, Vlad has ruined your chances of winning anything. Vlad is not playing terribly. He is still a decent start. But he's probably not the 2nd or 3rd round pick that you threw down for. For a guy who has a career average of .322, a drop to .282 means mediocre play. His OBP, at .346, is 40 points off his career average. Most discouraging is the .479 SLG%, which is 100 points off his career average.

Quite frankly, he's playing worse than the numbers tell you, because you can never tell when he's going to tee off. He's either going to get 3 walks and 2 singles all week, or he's going to hit 3 home runs and get 2 doubles, while knocking in 9. It's like playing Russian Roulette with your roster.

The truth is that Vlad is 32, and this decline is to be expected. Vlad isn't going to come back next year and return to his old self, no matter how much they pay him. Of course, I would still rather get a Vladimir Guerrero for my $15 million than an Andruw Jones, or a Barry Zito.

What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond? - August 4th, 2008

What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond?

Andruw Jones, as you may know, has been struggling as of late. He is not hitting the baseball. Jones finished the 2007 season with the Braves with a shiny .222 average and a glimmering .311 OBP. Not quite what you expect from a guy making $14 million a year. After that disaster of a season, Jones declared himself a free agent. You'd think that the race to sign a guy coming off a season like that wouldn't have many competitors, and you would be right. Unless, of course, your name is Ned Colletti, GM, LA Dodgers. Colletti decided that Andruw Jones was the big bat his team needed. Colletti -- the only GM interested in signing Jones besides Royals GM Dayton Moore -- rewarded Jones handsomely, signing him to a 2-year, $36.2 million deal. Jones received a $12.2 million signing bonus, earns $9 million in 2008, and $15 million in 2009. Usually, when you sign a suspect player, you leave your back door open, your ramp down, and your stairway fully extended. Not Ned! He locked himself in, big time. The Red Sox couldn't move Manny when he was making $17 million a year. Do the Dodgers have any chance of moving a scrub like Jones when he is set to make $15 million next year? No.

Well, Jones didn't disappoint. He is batting .161, with a .260 OBP. He has 2 HR, and has knocked in 13 runs. His SLG% is .241 -- 20 points lower than his OBP. "Well, he must not be starting a lot," you say. Wrong. Jones has racked up 199 at bats, more than half of what would be expected if he was a full time starter. He is on track to knock in 23 runs all season. If we multiply that projection to assume that he makes 550 at bats in the season -- a starter's number -- he would knock in 37 runs. Probably not the big bat Colletti had in mind.

Now, all these numbers are interesting. But here is the real kicker. Jones has played in every single game since July 4th, when he came off the DL. Prior to his injury, he had played in all but one game this season.

Unbelievable. The guy is giving away outs to the opposing team, and you continue to throw him out there every single night. And, Jones doesn't even try to move the ball. Of his 227 plate appearances, 73 have ended in strike outs. Every three times Jones steps to the plate, he strikes out once. By comparison, Adam Dunn -- who had 195 K's in 2004, which at the time was an MLB record* -- does so once in every four plate appearances. Why is the NL West incapable of making smart personnel decisions? What is it about that division that makes them unable to resist signing bad players to monster contracts? Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Andruw Jones, just off the top of my head.

Statistical proof that Andruw Jones has stopped hitting - June 23rd, 2007
If someone handed you $15 million... - May 2nd, 2008

*Thanks to our anonymous commenter for the correction.