Dusty Baker a little unsure about the number 15

Today, Johnny Cueto was scratched from his start and placed on the DL with a lat injury. Apparently the injury from his previous stay on the DL never healed properly and it’s still a bit sore. He only needs to rest it for a bit and he’ll be fine. Whatever. Doesn’t matter.

What does matter, however, is that he was placed on the 15 day DL. As most know, once you’re on the 15 day DL, you’re stuck there for 15 days since your last appearance (11 days from now, in Johnny’s case). But that might not be crystal-clear to Manager Dusty Baker. “He’ll miss one or two starts,” Baker said. OK. We’re good. We’re on message. But then this. “If he feels better, it’ll be one.” No! No, Dusty, it won’t! Because even if he feels better on May 11th, he won’t get to start. Because he’s still on the DL. He’s already missed one start. That makes two. Best case. Alright?

Now for some of my favorite Dusty Baker quotes. As anyone who’s frequented this blog since 2004 knows, he’s probably my favorite topic. Here’s a brief collection of just a few of my favorites.

April 23rd, 2005. LaTroy Hawkins has just blown another save, and Baker has announced that he is going to a ‘Bullpen by Situation’, as a ‘Bullpen by Committee never works.’ What’s the difference, Dusty? “[It’s a] bullpen by who’s pitched two or three days in a row. It could be a number of things. It’s not exactly by committee.” Well Dusty, how is that different from a bullpen by committee? “You say bullpen by committee, and that sounds like everybody, but that’s not everybody.'” OK Dusty.

April 24th, 2005. Chad Fox was called upon to save that night’s game. Dusty is then asked about Chad Fox’s health. Remember, this is shortly after he ruined Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. In fact, Wood would leave his next start – one of his last - for another trip to the DL. “You still have to protect [Fox], too. This guy is coming off, I don’t know what it is, two or three arm operations. He didn’t pitch at all last year. We have to protect him. He probably won’t go more than two in a row no matter what it is.”

April 25th, 2005. Dusty Baker uses Chad Fox in the 9th inning of a 10-3 game, the day after he said he wouldn’t use Chad Fox in back-to-back games because of his health. Sure enough, Fox ended up walking off the mound as though he’d been shot, and took another trip to the DL. He would only end up pitching another 3.2 innings in his career, allowing 7 runs. Baker: “It didn’t look good.”

March, 2004. After a performance in which his Cubs got 5 walks: "I think walks are overrated unless you can run. Most of the time you’re just clogging up the bases for somebody who can run… Have you ever heard the Yankees talking about on base percentages and walks? Walks help. But you ain’t going to walk across the plate. You’re going to hit across the plate… it’s called hitting. It ain’t called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking?” Not satisfied, Dusty went on, “Why don’t people leave me alone? Why do they always talk shit on me? People always have been trying to bring me down… that’s OK. That’s how it is. Actually, that makes me stronger. It’s OK. What are you going to say when I kick somebody’s ass?”

Yes. Hello?

Well, the interesting thing about this post is that I’m writing it four years after the previous post. Whoops. A lot has changed in those four years. So let’s rewind the clock. By one day.

One day ago, I was sitting at school. For some reason, I decided to search out my old blog. I was really more interested in seeing whether or not I was still paying money for the domain redirect, but… anyway, it turns out that Blogger keeps things online. Forever. So I started reading. I laughed. I miss having fun with baseball.

Since I wrote my last post, well... I graduated from college. I didn’t get a job. I lived out west for two months, hiked into Canada, and saw games at Busch, Kauffman, and Coors. I got a job. I went back to school. I did not watch the Tigers win the World Series. I got another job. I left school. I left the first job. I built websites. I did not watch the Tigers win the World Series. I got into medical school. I left my job. I moved to downtown Detroit. I did not watch the Tigers win a World Series. I studied in a windowless room for a year. I did not watch the Tigers win the World Series. I studied in a room for another year. I watched the Tigers manage their offseason bullpen like an ADHD kid who can’t be bothered with offseason acquisitions in MLB 2K13 because he’s tweaking too hard about his next 162-0 season.

You know, I miss writing about baseball. The degree program I’m in now is, let’s say, substantially harder than my previous one. I don’t have the time I used to have. So this is going to be an experiment. I’m going to see if I can maintain a baseball blog that discusses current baseball events, but without watching ESPN and without spending hours reading about baseball news. It’s going to be a little more difficult to gather material for these ridiculous stories. 

A lot has changed. But you know what? Dusty Baker still manages a Major League Baseball Team. The Houston Astros are still competing with the Ringling Brothers. The Detroit Tigers still show an utterly catastrophic lack of foresight with regards to their bullpen. And now the Marlins are trying to force Bud Selig into creating a one-team contraction scheme. So, actually, I think I’ll be just fine.

See ya soon?

“Can you throw a baseball? The Tigers need you.” – March 30, 2009
”Welcome to the Houston Circus” – June 12, 2007

Roy Oswalt will now continue to destroy Cincinnati

Most individual v. team stats don’t make a lot of sense in baseball. For example, Player X – normally a .268 hitter – hits .283 lifetime against Team Y. Thanks for the enlightenment?

That is, unless Roy Oswalt is pitching to anyone in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. Oswalt, entering his ninth season as a major leaguer, has now compiled a 23-1 record in 26 starts against Cincinnati. That is a .958 winning percentage. There are not a lot of sure things in life; the Sun will rise, and the Sun will set. And then at 8.05pm tomorrow, Roy Oswalt will begin his ritual pounding of the Reds. That’s about as near to investment-grade sports gambling that you are ever going to get. Honey, go pick up that new dress you’ve been eyeing; we’ve just run into a windfall.

Unfortunately – depending on who you’re rooting for – things may get slightly more interesting this time around. Oswalt has not exactly been a robot so far this year, dropping his first two starts and allowing nine runs in 13 innings. And Houston has scored fewer runs thus far – 26 – than any other major league team; a full run per game behind the runner up, and a full five behind the Rangers. If you’re plating fewer than 3 runs per game, you’re not going to win very many games easily.

Meet your Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are not on anyone’s list of NL East dark horses this year. That’s because there is next to nothing to like about this team, (six assistants to a vacant General Manager position, anyone? And that guy in the picture, shaking everyone’s hand? That would be the multiple-injury plagued, $5 million a year, Dmitri Young.) Well, at least the offense is not awful. The Nationals have scored 34 runs in 7 games (4.86 per game); not an atrocious amount. However, they have allowed 54 runs – at a rate of 7.71 runs per game, second only to the Indians eight. Rewind that. The Nationals team ERA is 7.71. Surely, this must be a statistical aberration, you say. Nay! Without getting too detailed, suffice it to say that the Nationals have three pitchers with ERAs under 4.50. None of them are starters. Daniel Cabrera, (4.91), Scott Olsen (14.63), and John Lannan (10.00) have each made two starts, and Shairon Martis (9.00) has added one. 31 IP, 32 ER, 47 H, 14 BB, 16 Ks… you find me a good number in that line. The 1.97 WHIP? The 4.65 K/9 ratio? The bullpen has got Julian Tavarez and Joe Beimel doing good work. And yes, I know we are dealing with small sample sizes here, but are these numbers going to change drastically anytime soon? Probably not.

As if this wasn’t enough, the Nationals Manager Manny Acta insists on handicapping his already borderline offense by batting Ryan Zimmerman in the three spot, in front of Adam Dunn, every single game. The result? His team is 0-7 (at least this time, it only took them 19 innings to get their first in-game lead). To his credit, this is a tricky situation, and I can see his side of it. Dunn has an alarmingly high affinity for the strikeout. And Zimmerman is really your only other half-decent, hit-the-ball-out bat on the team. But leaving Dunn in front of Nick Johnson? How do you craft his inflated .273 average into some sort of lineup protection? This leaves us with the following: Certainly, you have to lead off with Elijah Dukes and Cristian Guzman, because, let’s face it, you don’t want to start using up your automatic outs, (Kearns, .158 avg), in the two hole. Now it’s Zimmerman and Dunn left. I say put Dunn at #3, and Zimmerman at #4. Zimmerman isn’t the greatest hitter – although I am calling him for a semi-breakout this year – and he probably isn’t experienced enough to know when pitchers are pitching around him. But he will learn extremely quickly in this lineup. Zimmerman is certainly respectable enough to afford Dunn some protection, which is our main goal. You put Dunn in the 3-hole, you get an extra 17 or so at bats from him over the course of the year, and you actually give the guy a chance to hit. Johnson still falls into the 5-hole, but at least your primary home run hitter still has protection. Johnson isn’t a completely inept hitter, and as long as Zimmerman can realize when they’re trying to pitch around him, you do alright. Fill out the lineup with your remaining outs from Belliard (if he ever takes the field again), Flores, Kearns, and pitcher. How many games will the Nationals win with five hitters? To this point, that would be zero games. And, as many of you know, Nick Johnson is made of glass. It’s only a matter of time before he’s placed on the DL, and then you’re left with four hitters. That’s an ugly day.

Why am I making such a big deal out of this? Who cares if Dunn bats with no protection? Let me explain. Dunn is currently on pace to walk 254 times; he has 22 at bats and 11 walks. He has always had a good eye, but right now they’re just not giving him anything to hit. And why should they? Last year, Dunn had more doubles and home runs(63) than singles (59). In other words, if you pitch to the guy, and he makes contact, he’s more likely to land on 2nd or cross home than he is to stop nicely at first. The Nationals most common lineup has Dunn followed by Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, and Jesus Flores, all of whom have .333 OBPs. Which wouldn’t suck, except that it is their collective slugging percentage as well. In other words, throw Dunn on base, you keep him at first, and chances are, he’s stranded there. Maybe he gets bumped to second. And guess what? Besides Dunn’s own two home runs, he has scored twice. He has made it on base 17 times, excluding those two bombs, and he currently has a .576 OBP, (yes, that is 1st in the NL). Listen, if you keep batting Dunn #4, your most powerful bat will continue to walk. He has a great eye; that’s fine. But his insane ability to launch balls 500 feet away from the plate is far more valuable.

On an unrelated note, the Royals have managed to go 5-3, while scoring only 27 runs (3.38 per game) and allowing 24 runs (3 per game). By comparison, the 5-3 Dodgers have scored 43 and allowed 24.

Congratulations, Washington – April 13, 2007

Welcome to Happy Fun Ball

Quite frankly, my annual pay league – Happy Fun Ball – has found a way to pop up every season on this site, and it never makes much sense if I just throw it in the middle of the season, (see right). No doubt many of you will just skip this post; maybe fantasy isn’t your thing. But I’ll make the introductions now anyway. In this, the fifth year of Happy Fun Ball, Team Adventure Ball will be seeking the championship, attempting to return to the form of their 2007 Wire-to-Wire season, (hell, they started 9-0). A few notes: as seen above, people take the league very seriously. Equations are often used to describe events for no reason. This will become apparent as the season progresses, (B. Inge = MVP, anyone?) Other than that, it’s your typical, high-intensity, make-believe baseball league. With a monster jackpot at the end of the year.

Here are the rules: Head-to-head league, weekly lineup, 12 teams, nine hitters (standard fielders plus utility), seven pitchers, six reserves, one DL spot. In addition, no taunting Happy Fun Ball. Bonus if you can spot that reference. Points are awarded as follows:
Hitting: 1B, RBI, R, and BB – 1pt, 2B and SB – 2pts, 3B – 3pts, HR – 4pts (note that the run and RBI make a HR worth at least 6).
Pitching: ER – (-1pt), BBI and HA – (-0.5pts), K – 1pt, IP – 2pts, CG – 5pts, W and S – 10pts.
Some notable difference between most leagues: batters are not penalized for strikeouts, and a walk is worth just as much as a single. There is no differentiation between relievers and starters. Some teams will load up with closers and others with starters. Since it it’s a weekly lineup league, I like to have a few closers on staff that I can plug in when my starters sit with bad matchups that week. When a starter has two starts in one week, he’s obviously more valuable, even if he’s normally a bad one-start option. Since it’s a 12-team league with 22 spots on each roster plus one DL, it’s a pretty deep league – 264-276 spots.

After my extensive draft prep, I’m more pleased with this team than I have ever been with any fantasy team. HFB was reincorporated in early February, and the draft took place on March 18th. I’ve given the list in draft order, with overall pick in parenthesis:

1st Round Mark Teixeira (1B, 7), Ryan Braun (OF, 18)
3rd Matt Holliday (OF, 31),  Roy Oswalt (SP, 42)
5th Adam Dunn (OF, 55), Brian Roberts (2B, 66)
7th Brad Lidge (RP, 79), Rich Harden (SP, 90)
9th Troy Tulowitzki (SS, 103), Chris Iannetta, (C, 114)
11th Joba Chamberlain (SP, 127), Ryan Zimmerman (3B, 138)
13th Gil Meche (SP, 151), Johnny Cueto (SP, 162)
15th Mike Jacobs (1B, 175), Huston Street (RP, 186)
17th Chris Young (SP, 199), Nelson Cruz (OF, 210)
19th Hank Blalock (1B/3B, 223), Chad Qualls (RP, 234)
21st Joey Devine (DL, RP, 247), Billy Butler (1B, 258)
23rd Paul Konerko (1B, 271)

Here’s my breakdown of the team. Extremely strong offense. I like to stick to drafting hitting in the upper rounds, as pitching is hard to predict, (in general, hitters vary about 20% more than hitters year-to-year). And I love Nelson Cruz. I think he’s going to be putting up huge numbers this year, and I stole him in the 18th round. He hits in a loaded Texas offense. He is the next Josh Hamilton. I’m loaded down with backup first basemen in Butler, Jacobs, and Konerko  – all of which will probably spend most of the year on my bench, unless they can outperform Cruz, who currently has the utility spot. Otherwise, they’re drop-bait. In fact, Butler is standing on the plank right now with one leg over the water. I had Cruz starting the first week before I got nervous, freaked out, and threw Konerko in. Thus far, Konerko has contributed 17 points, (pretty good for a 23rd-rounder) while Cruz has gone for 31 points on the bench – tying Tulowitzki for the top scorer on the team. I’ve learned my lesson.

I’m confident that between Cruz, Blalock, Butler, and Konerko, I will have at least one guy who’s hot enough to throw into the utility spot each week. If Iannetta does what he can do, (meaning, the Rockies get some self control and stop sitting him for Torrealba) even the catcher spot is strong. The only weak spot is at third base; I’m banking on both Zimmerman and Blalock to breakout, at which time I can trade one for pitching. I’m predicting that at least one of these guys will hit 25HR this year. I can’t see any trades I can make that will strengthen the hitting on this team, except for Carlos Lee. Lee has been a fixture on every one of my fantasy teams. The problem with an annual league is that the guys know how you draft and exploit it. The Springfield Isotopes grabbed Lee in the fifth round. Boo yas and laughs ensued. The Isotopes were hoping to rattle me in the draft and collect a huge ransom in a trade afterwards. I refuse to play into these games, and thus Lee remains with the enemy. Prior to the start of the season last year, I traded David Ortiz – whom I got stuck with in the 2nd round – for Carlos Lee, whom my brother had picked up in the 6th. Accusations of “Ortiz > Lee” and collusion ensued. Lee easily outperformed Ortiz last year – so Lee > Ortiz. But even if I get him this year, who do I sit? The problem with Cruz is that I’ll never get fair value for him if he’s the real thing, because he isn’t well established yet. So I’d prefer not to trade him and keep him pumping in the Utility spot.

I’m less thrilled with my pitching, but I am still happy with it. Harden is great when he’s healthy, and when he isn’t healthy, he’s on the DL, so it’s a black and white. I don’t have to worry about him starting one week and putting up a crappy outing half the time. When he’s starting, I know he will give me 20 points without having to rely on the bullpen for the 10 point boost in the win. In his first start, he struck out 10 and earned me 18.5 points despite the losing the win to the bullpen. Last year, Aaron Harang was the antithesis of this. I knew he could pitch well, but he never got a win from the Reds and eventually started pitching like crap. I had to plug him in each week, however, because I was always hoping he’d come up with a huge, 30 point start. It never came and I benched him for the last few weeks.

Qualls is a solid, undervalued closer (20th round!? I picked him right between Ken Griffey, Eric Byrnes, Todd Wellemeyer and Mike Hampton) that pitches for a decent team in Arizona. I went with Lidge in the 7th round in keeping with one of my core draft strategies – draft the best player on the board that you can fit in your starting lineup. Interestingly, CBS projects Lidge to earn 497 points and Qualls 418 this year. That’s a 3 points-a-week difference in 13 rounds. Lidge is a consistent closer (his numbers really were never that bad in those two off years), and a guy I know I can plug in every week for solid points. Ditto with Harden and Oswalt, which leaves me with four spots to fill as matchups dictate. Qualls probably makes the cut most weeks. If Meche continues to pitch like he has been, it won’t matter if the Royal’s can give him wins, (which I think they will). He’ll start most weeks as well. That’s five guys that are going to be a lock most weeks, and I choose between Chris Young, Chamberlain, Cueto, and Street for the remaining two spots. Not bad.

And that is Happy Fun Ball!

Meche pitches out of skull; Farnsworth kills it.

There was one interesting game on this afternoon. Well, there was one game, period. Normally, Royals v. White Sox is not on the top of anyone’s list. Hell, it’s not even on Royal’s Fan list either.

Let’s keep this short. I think the Royals will surprise some people this year. I’m looking at David DeJesus, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Mike Aviles, and Mike Jacobs, and I see some potential. People have been waiting for Teahen, DeJesus, and Jacobs to start hitting for years, and I don’t think these guys have reached their potential yet. DeJesus is 29, Teahen is 27, Jacobs is 28. Alives is 28, Gordon is 25, Butler is 22. This team is young. Again, I don’t know exactly why I think these guys will start hitting. I’m not sure they will. Keep your eyes pealed.

Which brings us to Gil Meche and Zack Greinke. I think Greinke, now 25, is going to become a much better pitcher this year. And even though it seems like Gil Meche has been around forever, he’s only 30. In 2007 and 2008, he finished with a 3.67 and 3.98 ERA, respectively. Last year, he had 183 K’s and 73 BB in 210 IP. That’s a great start to a rotation. Will Kyle Davies, Horacio Ramirez, and Jamey Wright manage to keep it together the rest of the time? Probably not.

Which brings us back to this afternoon. Meche turns in the kind of performance that the Royals are going to need from him this year. 7 IP, 7 H, 6 K, 0 BB, 1 ER, 91 pitches. He leaves after the 7th with a one-run lead. Things are going well, right up until the 8th inning. Kyle Farnsworth allows two singles and then throws up a HR to Jim Thome. 4-2 White Sox, win spoiled. You need a decent set up man and a good closer to win games. Sure, the Royals should have scored more runs. But your excuse for being unable to win close games can’t be, “well, we didn’t score enough runs.” Seriously, can you see where that will take you?

How wasteful is an $11.4 million a year pitcher – yes, that is how much Meche is making – if you can’t get a win when he dominates?

Relief for a Royal Pain (Yahoo! Sports) – May 5, 2006

Opening Day Notes

It feels GREAT to be watching baseball games, absolutely outstanding. Here are a few thoughts:

Yankees v. Orioles:

• Has anyone noticed that the outfield at Comerica Park is a spot-on impression of Camden Yards? Anyone?
• Text Message from Kevin (Mobile): “OMG CC makin’ his Yankee debut is on! Boner!”
• Speaking of Yankee debuts, Teixeira goes 0-4 with a BB, including a 2-out, runners-on-the-corners rally killer. Meanwhile, Sabathia gives up six runs in 4.1 IP, allowing 8 hits, walking 5, and striking out 0. And these guys are earning a paycheck the size of Bolivia’s GDP over the next several years.
• When you’re up by one run in the 7th, one out, man on first, why do you bring in Jamie Walker’s 6.87 ERA? Right, because you’re the Orioles, and you just figure that the lefty will match up better against the left-handed Cano. Check your stats. Cano hit .292 v. lefties and .263 v. righties last year, and is now hitting 1.000 against Jamie Walker this year. Well done.
• Joe Morgan: “You look at how great the new Met’s ballpark is, and you say, it’s time for the Cubs to build a new ballpark! Thing is, I don’t know if actual Cubs fans would agree with that statement.” So…?
• Instant Message from Kevin: “Tigers are comin’ on but the Yankee game is intense right now too. It’s like choosing who do you love more, Mom or Dad?”

Nationals v. Marlins

• The Nationals are going to need some help this year. In a prelude to the remainder of their season, they were demolished by Hanley Ramirez the Marlins, 12-6. New acquisition Adam Dunn knocked in four of the National’s runs.
• The Marlin’s interesting 1-4 hitters – Emilio Bonifacio, Jeff Baker, Hanley Ramirez, and Jorge Cantu – combined to knock in 11 runs and went 9-16, (.563). Everyone else? 3-19, (.158).
• That included an inside-the-park HR from Bonifacio. The first opening day, inside-the-park HR since Carl Yastrzemski. When asked how he felt about that, Emilio’s response? “Who is Carl Yastrzemski?” Uh, beg your pardon?
• Someone has to ask the question – does Adam Dunn just like playing for bad teams? After eight seasons with the Reds, he is traded to the Diamondbacks, and then becomes a free agent. Does he resign with the Diamondbacks? How about one of the 29 teams that won more than 60 games last year? No thanks. Hello Nationals.

Tigers v. Blue Jays

• Instant Message from Kevin: “Verlander v. Halladay tonight, that’s all I gotta say. One of my roommates said we should bong a beer for every strikeout, I was like, ‘you’re joking I hope,’ and he goes, ‘yeah but not really.’”
• Justin Verlander is freaking out up there. Justin – slow down. Take a breath. Get the sign. Breathe again. Throw the ball. In that order. Is this the year Verlander returns to form? 3.2IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 4K. You make the call.
• Verlander throws 34 pitches in the first inning. You know what that means; we’re going to the bullpen early. And you know what that means. (What it meant was that when Eddie Bonine came in in the 4th, he promptly gave up a 2-run HR to Adam Lind).
• Roy Halladay will win the Cy Young this year.
• Rod Allen: “Laird is not really your typical catcher in the terms of the way he can run.” Oh, you must be referring to his 11 career stolen bases. In 19 attempts.
• Mario Impemba: “Curtis Granderson, and this one has a chance to go, and it’s outta here!” … As the ball lands in the upper deck of the Rogers Centre. Mario Impemba was the only person fooled about the trajectory of that baseball. And is that why no one in Michigan watches a Tigers game on FSN without firing up a drinking game with the announcers? You bet.
• Adam Lind, DH, Toronto Blue Jays. 6 RBI’s. Why yes, you are correct, that is nearly 1/6th of his total from last year.
• Enough. Did the Tigers even bother to play spring training games this year? Or did they just figure they’d show up on April 6th and wing it?

Can you throw a baseball? The Tigers need you – March 30, 2009
The Rod Allen drinking game (The Wayne Fontes Experience) – August 3, 2006

Can you throw a baseball? The Tigers need you.

Here's one job that's still up for grabs in Detroit. Well, actually, there are several. And all of them can be found in the Tiger's bullpen, (If you just Googled "Detroit Jobs," you can stop reading now, you are probably under-qualified). This is the one reason you will fail to see the Tigers in the playoffs this year. Here is a rundown of the 'pen, according to the Tiger's MLB.com depth chart. And I know ERA isn't a definitive measurement of much, but I think it gets the job done, in this case:
Bobby Seay, (4.47): Lefty 'specialist.' ESPN chimes in, "Another pitcher hanging onto his job thanks to the genetics that made him a left-hander, Seay needs to perform early, or he will likely be shown the door."
Juan Rincon, (5.86): Righty, signed to a minor league deal this offseason. Guess where he won't be this season? 
Eddie Bonine, (5.40): Righty; 28-year-old knuckler with 27 career MLB IP. Purchased from the minors.
Ryan Perry, (None): Righty. 22 years old. No other information available. Encouraging. Last year? Minors.
Scott Williamson, (2007 -- 4.40): Righty. 33-year-old journeyman. Minor league contract?  Hell yes. 
Fernando Rodney, SU, (4.91): Righty. You never know what you're getting with Rodney. When he's on, he's on. He was last on in 2005.
Brandon Lyon, CL, (4.70, 26/31 Saves): Righty. Another game of roulette with this one; in 2007, he went 35/38 and had an ERA of 2.68, with a 1.24 WHIP. Could be a decent closer. Number of leads that this bullpen will deliver? Zero.
I have also heard Clay Rapada (LHP, 4.22) may end up in the bullpen. And, given that Jim Leyland is, "just about 99.9% sure," that Zach Miner won't be his fifth starter, we have to assume he will end up in the 'pen instead. Miner's the guy with the 4.79 K/9 and 1.35 K/BB ratios, you remember him.

I wouldn't trust any of these guys in my backyard in a game of catch. And in the 9th inning to hold down a one run lead? Not a chance. Is this an experiment to see how many games you can win in a season if your pitchers all go Whitey Ford style? Is this simply designed to lower the morale of the rotation? Eliminate decisions as a statistical category for the starters? What exactly is the angle here?

Now, I am the first guy to tell you that the bullpen is the least important part of the team. It just is. Your offense goes nine innings, your starters go (hopefully) six, and your 'pen grabs three. Furthermore, a reliever is a reliever, and in general, there typically is not a Grand Canyon-sized gap between mediocre and lights-out reliever stuff. But, on the other hand, you have to see how an inexperienced, right-handed, wild-pitching bullpen is going to get you into problems late. Especially with a rotation as up in the air as Detroit's. I wouldn't be as concerned if they were throwing a Sabathia, a Peavy, and a Webb out there. But they're not. Verlander is the opening day starter. Edwin Jackson and Armando Galarraga are the #2 and #3's. And, as of March 29th, GM Dave Dombrowski has no idea who will be filling in his #4 and #5 spots in the rotation. In fact, he doesn't even know when he will know. It is not exceptional for the #5 starter to be a mystery on opening day, as teams don't typically need him for a couple weeks. But no #4? One week out? Inexcusable.

Bonderman is out with a shoulder problem -- symptoms being his inability to pitch effectively; no structural damage (???). Willis is down with a generalized anxiety disorder for an indefinite amount of time -- I will be shocked to see him pitch this year. Nate Robertson has a sprained thumb. Miner, as mentioned earlier, is out. However, the  Detroit News notes that Miner and Rick Porcello will likely be starting games #3 and #4. Porcello has, you guess it, no major league experience. He is also younger than I am. Miner, if he does start, will be doing so with the knowledge that his manager has absolutely no confidence in his ability, and is only allowing him on the mound because he has no better options.

Can you see how this is going to end up? Best case scenario, no injuries, we are looking at Verlander, Bonderman, Galarraga, Jackson, and Robertson. That is a crappy rotation. One of those guys goes down -- and they will -- and you are screwed. Zach Miner becomes your go-to. Two of those guys go down -- and believe me, they will -- Brandon Inge is then placed on the depth chart as spot starter. Seriously, who else is there? Porcello? Who?

The Yankees have tried to win games by beating the crap out of the ball with their sticks. It does not work. You cannot consistently win games by praying for a two-run bomb every inning. You cannot throw out guys who are a lock to give up five runs a game and expect to outscore your opponent 7 times out 10. What's the craziest part about this? Two years ago, Dombrowski was on top of the world. Best GM ever. Brought a Tigers team back to the top with smart drafting and solid management of young arms. Now? He's trading for Edwin Jackson and still in need of a fourth and fifth started. The bullpen is 70% walkons. How do you cope with that?

Tigers' 4th, 5th starters cryptic (Detroit Free Press) - March 29, 2009
Who's going to start the Tiger's first five games? (Detroit News) - March 30, 2009

One Saga Ends; Another Begins

Here we are, back for the season. This is going to be an interesting summer here at TABC so I encourage everyone to stick around to see what I have in store. The plans and ideas aren't firmed up yet, but I think they'll turn out nice. You'll hear about them soon.

Jim Bowden has finally abandoned ship, and in the process, ended a strange and somewhat prodigious journey as Commander of the Washington Nationals/Cincinnati Reds. Any long-time reader knows that all GMs fall into three categories here; 1) Good and smart, (Dave Dombrowski, Tigers), 2) Mysteriously strange moves that don't seem to make much sense, (Steinbrenner & Co.), or 3) Comically awful, with no evidence of rational thought present in any decision-making process, (Bill Bavasi, Jim Bowden).

This man has no concept of position management. He trades for and signs players that play positions he already has filled. Prior to the 2006 season, he traded for Alfonso Soriano. Soriano had previously said that he would never consider switching positions, as his offensive power at 2B would earn him far more than it would in the OF. Bowden, having a 2B in Jose Vidro and having traded away his OF, did so anyway, under the assumption that Soriano would do the nice thing and switch anyway. During the off-season, he did not attempt to work out the situation with his new LF2B. In fact, he waited until the first spring training game of the season to bring the issue up. Even then, he did so by proxy, having Frank Robinson pen Alfonso into the lineup card at LF. Alfonso's response? "No. Put me at second, or I don't play." Slight miscalculation, Jim. Of course, we remember that amid threats of placement on the DQ list, Soriano buckled and trotted out to left.

This offseason, Bowden decided he was bringing in Adam Dunn. He signed him to a 2-year, $20 million contract and, apparently, failed to check the depth chart before doing so. Dunn is a great player. Amazingly, that is actually a semi-reasonable price as well. However, you already have a 1B, (Nick Johnson). And a LF, (Josh Willingham/Willy Mo Pena). You can debate about these guys' abilities, but what matters is that they are already on the roster. Word is the Nats are likely to put Dunn at 1B, which knocks out Johnson and his $5.5 million a year, 30-year-old "upside" that everyone is still waiting to come to fruition. Where do you stash Johnson? Do you try to move him? Good idea. One problem, no one wants a career .270 1B for $6 million. Uh, whoops?

After this, Bowden finally showed himself the exit. Amazingly, this isn't even the reason Bowden resigned. He resigned because he was, quite frankly, a liar and thief. His "methods" are so ruinous that a column in the Cincinnati Enquirer opened with, "The problem was never that James G. Bowden IV wasn't smart. The problem was, he thought he was smarter than everyone else." The details are sketchy and they need not be our chief concern here, but it seems he took a little off the top of some signing bonuses which were sent to players down south. See the linked article above if you're interested.

That's all for now. Keep checking back; we'll be working our way up to a regular posting schedule by season opening.

What was Jim Bowden thinking? - March 21, 2006
Bowden's fifth tool was hubris (Cincinnati Enquirer) - March 2, 2009

A Word About Value - Pt. I

Sentiments do not win games. History does not strikeout batters. A name can't hit a home run. Sure, some of the above can tip the odds in your favor, and in baseball, it's all about the odds. But only numbers, and their associate meanings, can truly provide a forecast into a player's potential in the coming seasons. Every offseason, this fact seems to be lost on General Managers and team owners. Everyone throws sick money at mediocre players. I know it's a crazy market out there, and you have to compete with rich teams, so you have to overpay. But if it's between not having Barry Zito, and paying Barry $18 million a year over seven years, you go with not having Barry. Andruw Jones is another good lesson as well. This year, we're going to look at some free agents and decide how much they're really worth. I'm not going to pick the top agents, but I'll look at some ones that managers might not be able to restrain themselves with. We'll follow this up with some more in a few more days.

1) Mark Teixeira - 1B. Age: 28. 2008 Salary: $12.5 Million.
2008 Stats: 33 HR, 12 RBI, 97 BB, .308 AVG, .410 OBP, .552 SLG.
Let me just start by saying this -- here is one dude you cannot overpay for. He's a switch hitter. He's a solid defender at first. He is a masher. He is, by all accounts, a good guy. He is, for the most part, the model of consistency. If you get Tex on a bad year, he goes .300, 30 HR, 110 RBI. And the dude is about to turn 29. It seems to me like you could lock him up easy for about $15 million, 5-7 years. That would be the low end, but I can see him going for a little more.

2) CC Sabathia - P. Age: 28. 2008 Salary: $11 Million.
2008 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 17-10, 251 K's, 1.11 WHIP, .237 BAA, 253 IP.
Someone is going to get burned on this guy. Sure, Sabathia went nuts this year. You might be curious to know, however, that this is the first sub-3.00 ERA year for CC. By comparison, go-to stunner Jake Peavy, with seven years under his belt (one fewer than CC,) has four sub-3.00 ERA years. Everyone has this perception that CC is horse; however, he has only gone above 200 IP twice; in 2007, he goes 241, and in 2008, 253. And, if history tells us anything, it's that you can't make a pitcher pitch forever without his arm falling off at some point. (A.J. Burnett is also relevant here). CC simply cannot keep up that pace. He is still a good pitcher, but I don't think we're dealing with a Roger Clemens here. Remember, Sabathia relies totally on power, and power pitchers do not age well. Clemens and Randy are exceptions, because they are freaks. I think it would be fair to give the Kid 5 years at $15 million. And I guarantee you he will get more.

3) A.J. Burnett - P. Age: 31. 2008 Salary: $13.2 Million.
2008 Stats: 4.07 ERA, 18-10, 231 K's, 1.34 WHIP, .249 BAA, 221 IP.
I love A.J. Really, I do. But mark my words -- this guy is going to be the bust of the year. And that's saying a lot, looking at the free agents on the market this year. Someone might end up overpaying for Milton Bradley or Rafael Furcal. The Jays paid dearly for Burnett and he burned them bad. Get this: Burnett lands on the Jays roster in 2006, and makes $2.2 Million. He goes 10-8, starting in only 21 games. 3.98 ERA. What does he get in return? Two years, $13.2 million a year. More of the same in 2007 and 2008, but without the injuries in 2008. You think it's a coincidence that A.J. felt fine during his contract year? That's another thing that bugs me about Burnett; dude is always hurting. I used to know how many times he had been on the DL, but I can't keep track anymore. It's easily above 12. While he was in Toronto, there were rumors that he wasn't quite as hurt as he was claiming. As in, the GM publicly said that "he's going to have to pitch through some pain, or realize what the difference is between being hurt and really being hurt." And that's the worst thing people can be saying about you.

As ESPN notes, "The bigger concern with Burnett is what version of Burnett you're actually getting... he performs better when the pressure is off." Couldn't have said it better myself. His stuff is filthy. And if you watch him pitch five innings, you would think he was the second coming of Feller. But then you watch him for the sixth, and you have to rub your eyes to make sure it's the same guy. He always gives in to the big inning, and you never know what inning it's going to be. The result is some year-end numbers that aren't so awesome. He has a lot of arm and shoulder problems, and this is what usually throws him on the DL. So he is really a grab bag of problems. Sign him for $10 million and 3 years, and next time he goes on the DL, bring him off as a closer. PS - he's a power pitcher, and he's already 31. Say it with me...

One more note: It's the offseason, so there isn't a whole lot more to write about. I am working on finishing the transfer of all the material from the old site, dating back to 2004... I'm up to June 2006. So warm your hands over that material. Seriously, the archives are some of the funniest things you will ever read. This will get you started:
Congratulations, Washington - April 13, 2007

If Someone Handed you $15 Million... - May 2, 2008
Labels: Andruw Jones - Various
Labels: Mark Prior - Various
A.J. Burnett Keeps Coming Up... - July 6, 2007

Mets Struggle - Episode II

Much was made of the Met's collapse last year. Much has been made of their collapse this year as well. Why the repeat in coverage? If you're anything like myself, you know that one collapse wasn't enough. In fact, after the Mets destroyed themselves last year, it left me wanting one thing -- more. Much more. There is a certain synergy about back-to-back collapses. They're made that much more powerful when they act in concert. How hilarious is it that, knowing full-well that they pulled off the Ultimate Choke Job in 2007, the Mets are on their way to pulling off a repeat?

For example, playing Bill Buckner at first base in the late innings of, say, Game 6 of a World Series, would probably be asking for trouble. Now the Mets are in a similar situation. Omar -- maybe, heading into the twilight of the season, you could have picked up a pitcher or two, I mean, given your teams' propensity for late-season collapses and all. Instead, Omar went with the, "I think what we have now is good enough to bring us to October." Nice try.

But, again, I like this. This is like a movie that you saw a year ago, and it was hilarious, and you really enjoyed it. And then, the movie was re-released a year later, and you had to go see it because you loved it so much the first time. And, watching the movie the second time, you realized that it was even funnier the second time around. Here's the thing -- the Mets aren't out of this thing yet. There is still hope. But if these guys do manage to finagle their way into a playoff spot, you can bet they're going out in three games. It's almost like these guys have somewhere else to be in October. Anyone ever seen the South Park episode where the kids try to sabotage their baseball season so they can go home and watch TV instead?

I have only one question -- who's up for a three-peat?

The Yanks are coming... Maybe...

The following piece is a column from one of our guest writers, Geoff, who runs the Bleeding Pinstripes. Visit his site and give him the TABC bump.

I’ve been promising my boy Reid a piece for a while now on the Yankees’ chances this year, and since I’m waiting for my iPhone to back up anyway, here goes.

First let’s get up to speed on where we are. My thought going into the recent brutal road trip, and even the few series’ before (Boston, Minnesota, Anaheim, Baltimore) was that the Yankees season would take shape by the time they got back.

Not good news.

And last week I was screaming for the Yankees to send Melky down to triple A, as I saw his usefulness solely as an outfielder and a pinch runner; two roles I felt Brett Gardiner was better suited for. And I was railing against starting Richie Sexson against lefties, preferring to see him strictly used as a pinch hitter. So what happens next? Melky gets demoted, Gardiner is recalled, and Sexson is waived.

Worse news.

I know. Sounds a bit off. I’m contradicting myself. But the truth is – what do I know? Nothing. I was the guy screaming for Tony Womack to get more playing time in ’05; that Robinson Cano was a useless rookie. I was the guy saying that Posada was going to fade last year and end up at .270. That David Archuleta was going to get voted off the second week of American Idol because he was such a drippy little wuss. I shouldn’t be right. This can’t be good...

So what are the Yanks’ chances? If you ask me, it always comes down to one key thing. Schedule. It’s huge before the season even starts. Look at the Yankees. Every year they play the Angels ten times. And always predominantly on the road. Like clockwork. It’s a marquee match-up, and the Angels are the one and only team that have had the Yankees’ number. You think MLB is going to pass that up? Since the days of the unbalanced schedule, there is only one team outside of their division that the Yankees have played ten times. Yup. And it happens almost every year. And it’s not just the Yankees. The schedule tells a lot of tales before the first pitch on the first Sunday night. Look at the Mets. Every year they play six brutal games against the Yankees. They lost the NL East to the Phillies on the last day of the season last year. Do you think the Phillies still would have pulled that off if they were forced to play the Yankees six times while the Mets got to kick around Baltimore and whoever else? How about the Blue Jays? They were way better than the Cardinals when the final out was called on the 2006 regular season. Better record, better team, you name it. They just had the misfortune of being fed to the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times. So the Jays don’t even approach the playoffs, and the Cardinals get a shot at upset glory. While we’re at it, the Red Sox might be the best example. Good enough to win two World Championships in four years, good enough to elicit whispers of “dynasty?” around the sports world. Imagine. They’ve only won their own division once in the last thirteen years. And even that was on the strength of exactly one swing game with the mighty Yankees. Point is, the schedule is huge. And it gets more huge as the games get ticked off and teams make moves to shore themselves up for the stretch run as we hit the last weeks of August.

So with that said, the theme for the last twenty-three Yankee games was to simply hang on. This looked to be their most difficult stretch of the season. Three at Boston, three against Minnesota, four against LA, three against Baltimore, four at Texas, three more at LA, and three in Minnesota to close it. Twenty-three brutal games. And as I said, it didn’t exactly go swimmingly. They were 10-7 in the first 17. Then they needed to grasp and clutch for some wins while Boston and Tampa played the Royals and Seattle, over and over. They didn’t. They lost 5 of 6, with the lone win coming in 12 innings. So now they’re a big pile of games behind Boston and a big pile of games behind Tampa.

So what’s next. Tampa is going to lose. Probably a lot. Tampa is not a good road team. They’ve been good lately, but that’s mostly because they’ve played the Royals, the Mariners, and the recently castrated A’s. They did a great job of seizing on a bizarre schedule that featured a lopsided number of early games at home. When they get back East they’re going to lose. They’re going to lose to the Yankees and they’re going to lose to the Red Sox. Especially since they’ve been riddled with injuries that aren’t going to get better. The problem is they’re so far out in front it might not matter. To the Yankees, anyway. I think the Red Sox are going to catch them. The Red Sox aren’t going to lose any ground. They don’t play well on the road either, but they’re a veteran team that has incredible resilience and knows how to win. They’re loaded with tough outs and they’re never out of a ballgame. But they’ve also been bitten by injuries, which is going to keep them from the World Series, but I think they win the East.

So can the Yankees catch the Rays and everyone else in front of them for the Wildcard? They could. But it’s going to be so difficult to make up all that ground. On paper they are more talented than anybody outside of the Red Sox and the Angels. And they, too, are a proud veteran team that always seems to find a gear to get there. I think they need to get Hughes back healthy (I’m not even going to mention Pavano, because that truly would be hilarious), and they need to get Joba back healthy. And if they get the Ferocious Lion, Hideki Matsui, back in any meaningful way, they could make a run. The schedule includes lots of Boston (always difficult but never scary for the Yankees this time of year), and three more against the Angels (0-3). Other than that there are a lot of winnable games against beatable teams.

Bottom line: unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

We’re probably looking at the Angels feeding on the hapless National League to give Mike Scoscia his second piece of Orange County hardware. Probably. But probably isn’t definitely. That’s why they play the games, as the old saying goes. What I can say definitely, is that my boys and I will be waving the flag in section 24 at the Stadium until the last pitch is thrown. Right until the end.

And we’ll be rooting like hell for the Yankees to win the World Series.

Thanks to Geoff. Again, visit his blog, the Bleeding Pinstripes.

Rocky Road (Bleeding Pinstripes) - August 12th, 2008

"It's time to put all the women and children to bed"

Some of you may remember an article that appeared in the October 11, 2004 issue of Sports Illustrated. The article was titled, "Swinging Away," and it was an inside look at Gary Sheffield. In the article, Tom Verducci recalls that, in Gary's first season with the Yankees in 2004, he was hitting only .265, with three home runs in 44 games. Gary felt as if the Yankees didn't want him on their team. So he went to Joe Torre's office, and talked it over. When he emerged, he called his uncle, Dwight Gooden, and exclaimed, "They ain't seen me hit yet, but I'm about to get started. It's time to put all the women and children to bed."

This is possibly one of the best quotes that will appear here on TABC. Right up there with, "it makes my head explode," or, "You say 'bullpen by committee' and that sounds like everybody, and it's not everybody," or, "walks just clog the bases for guys that can actually run." However, what really sets this line apart from the others is what happened after. That night, Sheffield smacked four hits and drove in six runs. The following night, he had another three hits. In the rest of the season, he drove in 102 runs in 110 games, and hit 33 home runs.

All this, believe it or not, fits into the current conflagration with Gary Sheffield here in Detroit. Gary Sheffield, I have always said, can hit on command. For the most part, he hits what he wants, when he wants. In Detroit, he has been swinging for the fences, every time up. He's eight homers away from 500, and he desperately wants to get there. He's hitting .220, and he strikes out 25% of the time he steps up to the plate. I was at the game on Monday night, and every time Sheffield stepped up he was booed, tremendously. he was booed when he flied out, when he struck out looking, and hell, he was even booed when he drew a walk. He was then placed on waivers. The next game -- Tuesday -- Sheffield hit two home runs.

I've always wondered why the Tigers signed Sheffield. He's 39 years old. And now it looks as if they won't be able to move him, even on waivers, ($30 million contract?) And is it any wonder? Sheffield went public with comments that he's unhappy with the role he's playing on this team. When he signed in Detroit, he did so with the explicit understanding that he would be doing a lot of DH-ing. He was put in left when the Tigers released Jacque Jones. He couldn't play left, because he couldn't throw the ball. He now complains that he is part of a platoon. As Jim Leyland so eloquently put it, "anybody who has a brain knows that's not a platoon." Unfortunately, this looks really bad for Gary. I can understand where he is coming from -- he wants more playing time, and although he didn't say it, he probably believes he would play better if he was a regular starter. Unfortunately, you can't start a guy everyday who can't field and hits .220.

At some point, Gary is going to have to accept his role as a part time DH. He simply can't produce at the level he used to, because he's gotten old. It can't be easy for a guy who was a star to realize that he is now a low-level support player, but that's what he needs to do. And after that, he should hit his 500th home run, take a bow, and calmly exit the venue.

Swinging Away (Sports Illustrated) - October 11th, 2004
"It makes my head explode" - June 12th, 2007
Kerry Wood and Dusty Baker - May 1st, 2005

Is Manny apprised of his own situation?

The last few weeks have seen a resurgence of Manny-talk throughout the country. But I have just one question -- in the midst of all of this, has anyone mentioned how awkward it is that Joe Torre is managing Manny Ramirez? In fact, is Manny even aware of it himself? Joe Torre's new star is the man that likely precipitated his demise in New York. This fact appears totally lost on Manny Ramirez.

But this is just where the fun starts. Recall that Manny has, in the past several years, demanded trades from Boston. Remember that, two days after being traded to Los Angeles, the jovial Ramirez explained that, "I like this city, the environment, the energy, the fans. I think that I'll play here for the remainder of my career." But now, Manny want out of Los Angeles.

Apparently, unnamed sources  have indicated that Manny wants to sign next year with the Yankees. Even more interesting, they claim that Manny's chief reason for doing so would be to get back at the Red Sox. This seems like typical Manny bull-headed-ness. "I want out of Boston. I love LA. I want out of LA. I want into New York." I fear that moving to so many new places might really confuse him.

The Yankees have to at least try to sign the guy if he comes their way, right? You'd be stupid not to, right? Personally, I don't think it will even be an issue. From what I gather, there is about a one in a million chance that Manny actually knows what team he is playing for, where he lives, what he's doing, etc. He just goes where they tell him to, but once he gets into the box, he's in his own world. If they throw some money at the guy -- which the Dodgers seem to do with alarming ease -- they can keep him around until he turns 60.

The Greatest Play of All Time - February 28th, 2006
What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond? - August 4, 2008

Vlad Guerrero has destroyed your fantasy team

If you are like 100% of fantasy owners, you own Vladimir Guerrero. And, unless your league rewards points for mediocre play, Vlad has ruined your chances of winning anything. Vlad is not playing terribly. He is still a decent start. But he's probably not the 2nd or 3rd round pick that you threw down for. For a guy who has a career average of .322, a drop to .282 means mediocre play. His OBP, at .346, is 40 points off his career average. Most discouraging is the .479 SLG%, which is 100 points off his career average.

Quite frankly, he's playing worse than the numbers tell you, because you can never tell when he's going to tee off. He's either going to get 3 walks and 2 singles all week, or he's going to hit 3 home runs and get 2 doubles, while knocking in 9. It's like playing Russian Roulette with your roster.

The truth is that Vlad is 32, and this decline is to be expected. Vlad isn't going to come back next year and return to his old self, no matter how much they pay him. Of course, I would still rather get a Vladimir Guerrero for my $15 million than an Andruw Jones, or a Barry Zito.

What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond? - August 4th, 2008

What business does Andruw Jones have on a diamond?

Andruw Jones, as you may know, has been struggling as of late. He is not hitting the baseball. Jones finished the 2007 season with the Braves with a shiny .222 average and a glimmering .311 OBP. Not quite what you expect from a guy making $14 million a year. After that disaster of a season, Jones declared himself a free agent. You'd think that the race to sign a guy coming off a season like that wouldn't have many competitors, and you would be right. Unless, of course, your name is Ned Colletti, GM, LA Dodgers. Colletti decided that Andruw Jones was the big bat his team needed. Colletti -- the only GM interested in signing Jones besides Royals GM Dayton Moore -- rewarded Jones handsomely, signing him to a 2-year, $36.2 million deal. Jones received a $12.2 million signing bonus, earns $9 million in 2008, and $15 million in 2009. Usually, when you sign a suspect player, you leave your back door open, your ramp down, and your stairway fully extended. Not Ned! He locked himself in, big time. The Red Sox couldn't move Manny when he was making $17 million a year. Do the Dodgers have any chance of moving a scrub like Jones when he is set to make $15 million next year? No.

Well, Jones didn't disappoint. He is batting .161, with a .260 OBP. He has 2 HR, and has knocked in 13 runs. His SLG% is .241 -- 20 points lower than his OBP. "Well, he must not be starting a lot," you say. Wrong. Jones has racked up 199 at bats, more than half of what would be expected if he was a full time starter. He is on track to knock in 23 runs all season. If we multiply that projection to assume that he makes 550 at bats in the season -- a starter's number -- he would knock in 37 runs. Probably not the big bat Colletti had in mind.

Now, all these numbers are interesting. But here is the real kicker. Jones has played in every single game since July 4th, when he came off the DL. Prior to his injury, he had played in all but one game this season.

Unbelievable. The guy is giving away outs to the opposing team, and you continue to throw him out there every single night. And, Jones doesn't even try to move the ball. Of his 227 plate appearances, 73 have ended in strike outs. Every three times Jones steps to the plate, he strikes out once. By comparison, Adam Dunn -- who had 195 K's in 2004, which at the time was an MLB record* -- does so once in every four plate appearances. Why is the NL West incapable of making smart personnel decisions? What is it about that division that makes them unable to resist signing bad players to monster contracts? Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Andruw Jones, just off the top of my head.

Statistical proof that Andruw Jones has stopped hitting - June 23rd, 2007
If someone handed you $15 million... - May 2nd, 2008

*Thanks to our anonymous commenter for the correction.

Todd Jones has some advice for you

As you may be aware, Todd Jones was recently removed from the closer's role with the Tigers and place on the Disabled List. Jones, who managed to blow only 3 saves while earning his 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, has some advice for those youngsters out there who want to succeed where he failed. "If I could recommend one thing," Jones opined, "it would be: Don't get old."

Thanks, Todd, for the valuable life lesson. Pausing time will usually get you out of those trouble spots. Jones, who was put in the DL with tendonitis of the shoulder variety, is the Tiger's deputy Timekeeper, clocking in at 40 years of age; (Kenny Rogers, at 43, is the real Father Time on this team.) I will be the first to admit to sending text messages to the tune of, "We're up by one and they just brought Jones. Uh oh." Let us critically analyze Jones' season here. His 5.05 ERA is atrocious. But how much damage could he have possibly done to the team if he only blew three saves?

Jones earned 4 wins in addition to his 18 saves; all 4 wins came after Jones preserved a tie game in the top of the 9th inning, and the Tigers took the lead in the bottom. So, in effect, these are super saves. In these appearances, plus his successful saves, Jones allowed only 3 ER in 21 IP. This gives him an ERA of 1.29 -- not bad at all. Then there are the blown saves. In the 2.1 innings he pitched that resulted in blown saves, he allowed 7 ER, for an ERA around 27. What sets the Tigers apart from other teams, however, is that on game day the offense is either hitting on all cylinders or still in bed. Jones has only been given 21 save opportunities two-thirds of the way through the season. Joe Nathan, of the Twins, has saved 30 games in 32 opportunities, despite his team winning only 6 more games. As a result, Jones has found himself pitching in many non-save situations. In the 19 games where Jones did not factor into the decision, he went 17.2 innings and allowed 13 ER. This makes for a 6.62 ERA. Does this prove the idea that closers can't pitch in non-save situations?

	IP	App.	ER
Wins + Saves	21	22	3
Blown Saves	2.1	3	7
Non-save sit.	17.2	19	13

One five-year old fan, while Jones was signing his baseball, remarked, "Look Mom, heart attack Jones is signing my ball!" Why is Jones one of the most heavily criticized men in Metro Detroit? I believe it is, simply, the result of Jones' tendency to put a lot of men on base, his collection of less-than-stunning stats (that 5.05 ERA,) and the fact that he seems to allow a run half the time he takes the field. Now, in my heart of hearts, I know that Todd Jones is not a good pitcher. I know he lets men on like a desperate lady of the night. But why do the numbers imply that he isn't really that bad?

The misconception here is that Jones is incapable of saving games. In 22 saves and wins, he gave up earned runs on three occasions, and only allowed only one run in each time. Of the 25 times Jones was handed the ball with Tigers tied or up by three or fewer runs, Jones did his job 22 times. Thats an 88% success rate. In those 25 appearances, he allowed 10 ER, for an ERA of 3.86. Not bad for a 40-year-old who Tiger Fan has essentially run out of town.

Is Rich Harden Pitching in God Mode?

For those of you who haven't been following Rich Harden lately, be prepared to be amazed. Harden, who busted onto the scene with the A's in 2004 -- which was also the last time he started more than 20 games -- has returned, and is pitching in rare form, (which means he is pitching in real major league games, as opposed to those mysterious simulated games.) He spent five weeks on the sidelines this year with a strained right shoulder earlier in the season. Shortly after his return, he was traded to the Cubs. And Harden has managed to remain healthy for a solid three months now, and things seem to be back on track.

Most importantly, Harden is owning the National League. Now, we know that the when a pitcher and batter face each other for the first time, the advantage generally lies with the pitcher. And this is why pitchers, when changing leagues, tend to perform better, (see Bronson Arroyo.) In four starts with the Cubs, Harden's stats are as follows:

	DEC	IP	HA	ER	BBA	SO
SF	-	5.1	5	0	3	10
ARI	L	7.0	1	1	2	10
FLA	-	5.0	2	1	3	10
MIL	W	7.0	6	1	0	9
TOTAL	1-1	24.1	14	3	8	39

Those are pretty impressive numbers. Simply put, since joining the National League, Harden has gone off on NL batters. Especially with the 14.43K/9IP. The 1.11 ERA and the 0.91 WHIP? These are God numbers. Overall, Harden's season numbers aren't that far off the mark either. Despite having pitched 61 fewer innings than strikeout leader CC Sabathia, (101 v. 162), Harden has just 26 fewer strikeouts, (131 v. 157). Harden's season ERA is 2.04, and his WHIP is 1.09. And of course, that 11.64K/9IP. (Scott Kazmir is in 2nd place among full time starters, with 9.95K/9IP.) Opponents are batting .196 against him. Let me repeat that -- when you go up against Rich Harden, you are essentially a Mendoza Line Hitter.

Quite frankly, Mr. Harden is spewing fire out of his right arm. And if that shoulder stays intact, the Cubs would do well to sign this man for a very, very long time, (he is only 26). Now that Dusty Baker is out, they can count on actually being able to use the arms that they sign in the future. As far as I am aware, Lou Pinella doesn't have a strange habit of throwing his young pitchers out there for 130 pitches each start until their arm flies towards home plate, (see Kerry Wood; Mark Prior.)

Remember Mark Prior? - April 8th, 2007

Apparently, Bullpen Help > All Star Catcher

Kyle Farnsworth heads to the Tigers, and the Yankees get Ivan Rodriguez. In my gut, as a Tiger fan, it makes me sad. Pudge and I had some good conversations together. At least, I think we did, because his accent is quite thick. But before we explore today's deal, let's quickly hop into the Bench Coach's Way Back Machine and do a quick recap of Kyle's career.

2003: After Kyle (with the Cubs) hit the Red's Paul Wilson with a pitch, Paul decided that he would march on the 6' 4", 240lb former football player. Wrong move, Paul. Kyle went into preemptive strike mode, charged Wilson, and in the words of announcer Steve Stone, "rackey tacked" him and gave is face the speed-bag treatment. He was suspended for only three games, because MLB didn't want Farnsworth hunting them each down with a mace and smashing their faces in.
2004: Kyle has more fun in Chicago. That is, if your definition of fun is a series of lights-out trips to the mound, with some intermittent aviation-fueled arson mixed in, and some kicking-floor-fan-induced trips to the DL. Oh yeah, and when Kyle didn't hit 100mph on the gun, Cubs Fan booed him. True story.
2005: Kyle is traded to the Tigers, and promptly resumes his role as Fist Fight Upstager. As the Royals and Tigers slugged it out on the field, Kyle comes running -- all the way from the bullpen -- and, after a little baiting by Runelvys Hernandez, lays out Jeremy Affeldt, who is "not a twerp." Hard. Again, the announcers say it best:
Rod Allen: "You knew when Big Boy got there it was gonna get on!"
Watch the video at 2:50, and 4:00 to see the take-down. After this, the Tigers trade Farnsworth to the Braves at the deadline for Roman Colon and Zach Miner. Farnsworth leaves the Braves at the end of the season for the Yankees.

Now, here we are, making another trade for Kyle Farnsworth. Let's look at the motivation here. Know that Pudge is in the final year of a contract. As you may recall, he signed with the Tigers in 2004 after winning the World Series with Florida in 2003. The Tigers were the worst team in the league in 2003, and Pudge started them on their run back, so he's always been a fan favorite here. Whatever way you cut this, Tiger Fan isn't happy. And, remember that Posada is out for the year with the Yankees, so they do need a catcher. 

The likely scenario is that the Tigers knew Pudge wouldn't stay with what they were willing to pay him. Obviously, they want to get something for the guy before he leaves, but even this is questionable. In my opinion, the Tigers are still contending. Does Farnsworth bring more to the team, athletically, than Pudge? It's probably even there. But he definitely doesn't lead the team or the pitching staff in the same way Pudge does. Farnsworth helps in the bullpen, as we will see later. He certainly brings a semi-consistent arm to the table.

What about all the bad will you create with Tiger Fan? 70% of the crowd at night games hadn't been to downtown Detroit before 2006. And for many, Pudge is "their Tiger." Translation? Bandwagon Tiger Fan is pissed. Lifelong Tiger Fan probably knows that it's better than getting nothing, but he is still confused -- why Farnsworth? The Tigers probably could've gotten more with one day left before deadline. Even GM Dave Dombrowski said the Tigers didn't want to trade Pudge. He also had no idea where to slot Farnsworth in the bullpen, leaving that decision up to Leyland. So you traded a great guy who you didn't want to trade for someone you aren't sure what you're going to do with.

Roster Shifts: You've got Zumaya in the 8th, and Rodney in the 9th. You've also got Seay hiding out there with his 2.73 ERA, (surprise!) And, you have to find a place for Lopez and his sub-3.00 ERA. Where does Farnsworth fit in? Hopefully this will allow Leyland to STOP USING DOLSI AND FOSSUM, PLEASE. So, this gives the Tigers an outstanding bullpen in a league that is, quite frankly, starved for decent bullpen pitching. It almost makes you wonder, with three sub-3.00 ERA guys in Lopez, Zumaya, and Seay, plus Rodney, why do we even need Farnsworth? At least if Rodney doesn't prove to be consistent as a closer -- and I bet he will be -- Leyland can brush off Dusty Baker's bullpen by committee mode, and someone will do the job. If not, go into bullpen by situation mode. If you're confused about the difference, just ask Dusty. Really, ask him, because it's hilarious.

As for the infield, I don't think this makes much of an impact, other than forcing the .200 hitting Inge to play every... single... day. And Dombrowski has confirmed that Inge will now be the every day catcher. The Tigers certainly take a huge hit here.

So, is it worth losing Pudge for Farnsworth? Pudge was a fan favorite, handled the pitchers well, hit at .300, is still a great defensive catcher, and was apparently a positive force on the team overall. By getting Farnsworth, we get a guy who comes in with the 4th highest ERA in the pen and no given purpose. We have to watch Inge strike out with his big pool stick swings every day. The Yankees certainly came out ahead on this one, as they went from backup catcher to prime catcher. As for the pitching, you can leave that alone -- Brian Cashman can't handle a bullpen and nothing I say here will change that. From the Tiger's perspective, I have to give this trade a questionable ranking.

Kyle Farnsworth tackles Jeremy Affeldt - July 17, 2005
Kerry Wood and Dusty Baker - May 1, 2005

Does Florida know that the Marlins are 26-19?

You would like to believe that, in a state with a notoriously poor reputation for the aptitude of their professional baseball teams, the emergence of not one, but two quality teams would catch the state up in a baseball furor. Bandwagon-ers and fair-weather fans, (is there such a thing in that sunny state?) would swarm the stadiums to experience the forgotten pleasure of a winning team in their very own backyard. Sadly, that is not the case. Now, granted, not all the news out of Florida has been good. But the dual accomplishments of the Marlins and the Devil Rays deserve some attention from someone, right?

Judging by the attendance at what promised to be quite an exciting  game, with world-burner Brandon Webb going for his 10th straight win, Florida doesn't agree. At right, you see a go-ahead home run heading into the seats, launched by Cody Ross, he of a strange grimace and a .184 batting average. There are precisely six people in this frame. One is Diamondbacks left fielder Eric Byrnes. Two of them are very, very lonely, (and probably unconscious, given the demographic,) fans sitting contently (dangerously?) still as the ball soars towards them. The other three are overly enthusiastic sprinters determined on beating the rest of the stadium to Ross' 30th home run ball. Not exactly the excitement that the NL East leading team had probably hoped to generate. Indeed, the game's total attendance was an astounding 11,227 persons. All this for a matchup that featured two of the better hitting teams in the league, as well as one of the premier pitchers of our time. In terms of revenue, this is disastrous for the owners. But you can't help but envy those true fans that get to truly enjoy the game in peace, right?

I know Dolphin Stadium isn't the ideal venue to watch a baseball game. I know it was a school night. To be fair, lets consider an interleague matchup on a Saturday afternoon. That should garner some attention, right? Does 16,214 work for you? Now, the Marlins sold out opening day, as nearly every baseball team in the country manages to do. I will give them that. Come day two, against the same New York Metropolitans team, they managed to pack the house with 15,117 loyal fans. Florida Marlins tickets appear to be an inelastic good, with demand staying steady regardless of record or excitement.

The Rays are not doing much better. Strangely, MLB experimented with sending the Rays to Disney's Wide World of Sports in the hopes of... popularizing the team. From April 22-24, the Rays faced off against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Magic Kingdom. Perhaps confused by the change of venue, perhaps annoyed by the blatant commercialism being shoved down their throats, attendance was in the 8,000's.

In 2005, Kevin and I frequented Comerica Park throughout the season. At this point, as many may recall, the Tigers were not known to be a good team. They were only secretly good. We knew the ushers, because it isn't too hard to spot a regular in a crowd of 5,000. This was fun stuff. Most of the other fans were just like us -- skipping work, or judiciously using their vacation days, to watch a bad team play ball because they liked the sport. And then, when the Tigers 'got good' the following year, it was as we feared -- the park was swamped with people who had no idea what they were watching. The signs were familiar. Cheers erupted at inappropriate times, for two reasons. Firstly -- and this happens in any city where people are new to the game -- every ball that left the infield was a home run that just died out before it got to the wall, and the crowd responded as such. As a former outfielder myself, I am always fascinated by the lay-person's inability to judge a fly ball. Secondly -- and I suspect this to be unique to Detroit -- people were actually watching the Pistons game on the TVs hanging from the upper deck. The bandwagoners had come to a Tiger's game, because that's what everyone was doing. And when they got there, they had to watch the Pistons game, because that's what everyone else was doing. It was a creepy orgy of conformity. For Kevin and myself, the value of the experience had certainly declined.

So in a way, Florida's true baseball fans are the lucky ones. Not only do they get to enjoy the thrill of a good team in their midst, but they get to do so without the underwhelming crowds that usually accompany such success. Unfortunately, economics doesn't reward such consumerism. The real fans don't pay any more to enjoy the game than anyone else. In fact, I would posit that they pay less, because they don't get sucked into the costly parking traps or the $28 pizzas. (In Detroit, this is vertical integration at its finest. The owner of the Tigers also owns Little Caesar's, which supplies the only filling food in the stadium. The Ilitchs' also own the Red Wings and are, thusly, a very wealthy couple). 

Does the value of the ballpark experience decrease when a team begins to improve? Would you rather experience a game with a few like-minded fellows, or be surrounded by people that are surprisingly unaware of what's happening in front of them?