Some more pitching updates

Lately we've been keeping track of the number of times Bobby Cox has pulled Tim Hudson too early. Well, he did it again. It's the bottom of the 8th, and the Dodgers are up 3-1. Braves are up to bat and Hudson, who has only 87 pitches and had been doing quite well, is leading off. But no - he's pulled for pinch hitter Chris Woodward, who ends up making an out. Now it's the top of the 9th, and 3 Braves relievers allowed 3 runs before they were saved by a double play. Hudson did give up a solo shot to none other than Wilson Betemit and his .125 average in the top of the 8th, so maybe Cox did make the right call. But I don't really like it. Wouldn't have been the biggest deal, but for two things. First, I get 10 points in my fantasy league if Hudson gets the win, and I'm fighting to go 5-0 this year. But, more importantly for the Braves, they loaded the bases in the bottom of the 9th, when Kelly Johnson singled to bring home two runs. That made the score 6-3. Edger Renteria then grounded out to end the game. Had your stinky relievers not given up those three runs, you're looking at a tie game. For some reason, Bobby Cox is just way too freaking quick on the hook for Hudson. Hudson early yank count this year: 3.

And a weird day in Texas. First, Kevin Millwood went on the DL, leaving Texas with the Padilla Flotilla as their Ace. You know, that guy with the 5.66 ERA this season? The rest of the rotation consists of McCarthy (7.96 ERA), Robinson Tejeda (3.89), Kameron Loe (7.04), and Mike Wood (5.45 last season). That's really, really concerning. The bullpen isn't doing too bad, but you have to ask yourself if that even matters. Anyway, Texas played the Blue Jays today, and Roy Halladay, all-time favorite, started. Usually this means you score 2 runs. Today, not so much. Halladay gave up 9 runs, real out of character for my Cy Young pick. 

Somebody needs to pull Roy Oswalt off the Reds. After his latest win against the Reds, Roy is 19-1 against them in his career. Man is invincible.

Alright guys. Might not be back for awhile now. Finals until Wednesday, and then summer school starts Thursday. So it'll be busy for awhile and we might get a little slow here. But stick around.

A look at some comeback pitchers

Well, like I said earlier, I've been sick and such, that's why I've been gone. I encourage you to check out the Birthday Bash post from earlier today, it's much better than anything you are going to read here. Now we're going to take a look at some pitchers who at some point have been left for dead, but are actually still some of the best in the game.

How about that Francisco Cordero kid? He had a bad year last year, and he looked finished. This year? 11.1 IP, 10 saves, 19 K's, 7 walks, 0 runs. And the dude has allowed 2 hits. I don't understand why this isn't a bigger story. The 7 walks show us he has a little control issues, but still... 2 hits? The guy has faced 41 batters. That's an average of .059. He obviously can't stay this lights out forever, but it's still an amazing performance.

I think it's safe to say that Tim Hudson is back. He's showed good command over his first six games of the season, walking only 12 batters so far in 45 innings, (I never understood how Zito and Hudson fit into the Moneyball Scheme in Oakland, where they both gave up about 80 walks a year.) He's allowed only 7 runs. He's 3-0, but he should be, if not 4-0, 5-0. We wrote about how Hudson got one win janked from his record two starts ago, but it happened again last night. This time, it was in reverse. In the bottom of the 8th the Braves were up to bat, score 2-2. Men on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs, when Huddy's spot comes up. Again, a tough spot. Do you leave your pitcher in, who has only allowed 5 men to reach base all game with 94 pitches, and hope you can score later? Or do you take him out for a guy like Brayan Pena, who's batting average against righties is .60 lower than Hudson's? Obviously, Cox chose to jerk Hudson for Pena, who promptly grounded out to Brett Myers, (who is still pitching in relief...?) And then, of course, the Braves score 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th to take the game. So, Hudson should be 5-0, but instead he's 3-0. We're going to start keeping track of this. Hudson early yank count: 2.

And Roy Halladay is still the best pitcher in the game. Roy won the Cy Young in 2003, but turned in a less-than stellar year in 2004 with a 4.20 ERA, the only time besides 2000 that he finished with an ERA above 4. But people thought he was a fluke. I drafted Halladay incredibly low with the 51st pick in my 2005 pay league. He is now 4-0 with an ERA of 2.28. And the thing is, he can keep that up all year. He leads MLB with 47.1 IP. He even went 10 innings for a complete game win against the Tigers - for the 2nd time in his career. This guy is hitting on all cylinders. 0.89 WHIP, 33 K's, 7 walks. I've long said that he will win the Cy Young again. Well, last night he struck out 8, allowed just 5 hits, and went the full 9 innings for the win. After that, Jay's manager Jay Gibbons said, "he's a security blanket... He saves bullpens, he continues winning streaks, stops losing streaks, and that's how you get things going." That's probably one of the best compliments you can get as a pitcher. And it's true. Halladay is one of only a few starters in the league that can actually make a huge impact on the team as a whole. You've got Santana, maybe Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, and Halladay, that's about it.

Finally, Jake Peavy is another comeback story. The kid looked to have lost it last year, going with a 4.09 ERA. But this year he's started solid, with a 2.06 ERA and 46 K's in 39.1 IP. He's 3-1. It's tough to get wins on a team as bad as the Padres, (in his two no-decisions, he allowed a combined 1 run in 14 innings against Colorado and Arizona,) but he'll manage to put together a good year if he keeps this up.

I want to see someone get 300 K's in a year. Randy Johnson got 290 in that oh-so-memorable year of 2004, where, as you might recall, he pitched 245 innings, (2nd place,) with an ERA of 2.60 (1st place among starters,) a WHIP of .90, (1st among starters,) those 290 K's, (1st place,) and an OBA of .241 (1st among starters.) He made 35 starts, so you're thinking, wow, dude most have gone like, 25-2 or something, right? Sadly, that was not the case. Johnson played for the crummy Diamondbacks that year, and he went just 16-14. He even missed out on the Cy Young award, which went to Roger Clemens. That's pretty awful.

And now for a guy who isn't doing so hot. Mark Redman, who now pitches for the Braves. Have you ever noticed that every time you look around, this guy is on a new team? That's because it's true. In 1999, Redman pitched 12 innings for the Twins and was welcomed back again in 2000. That was the only time he has ever pitched for the same team two years in a row. Now he's in Atlanta with a 10.13 ERA and no wins. There's talk that if he gets kicked around again tonight, he'll lose his spot in the rotation... I don't know about that. If the Braves had another option for their #4 spot, they probably would've put him in already. They've got Chuck James in the 3 spot, and Kyle Davies in #5. They don't have anyone better. Mike Hampton has been on the DL since about this time two years ago. Maybe they will just come up with some bizarro rotation where Tim Hudson and John Smoltz pitch on three days of rest. I could definitely see that happening. And I would be all for it. Because seriously, how often do the Braves make a big mid-season trade? They just bring up guys from the minors that somehow fit right in.

Well that's all for now. Don't expect anything big for the next week or so. Finals are over on the 9th, so we've got that to look forward to...

Birthday Bash Flashbacks! - Turns out, bad can be funny - May 1st, 2007
However many wins Tim Hudson finishes this year with, add one - April 25th, 2007

Birthday Bash Flashbacks! - Turns out, bad can be funny

BHGM celebrated birthday #2 on Sunday the 29th, and as promised, we've got more Birthday Bash Flashbacks. Another two-fer today. The theme is, really bad things can be really funny.

First we're going with the classic "Kazmir, Cubs, Duffy, and College Baseball Lying" post from May 19th, 2006. Had a lot of bad stuff happening then. Scott Kazmir can't put the ball in its place, a drunkard chucks a ball at the terrible Jacque Jones while he tries to play the outfield, Barry Bonds gets an intentional walk of the most untraditional sort, and the Pirate's Chris Duffy commences another Operation Shutdown. Bronson Arroyo forgets that pitchers bat in the NL, and says, after his embarrassing lose to the Pirates, that "there is something wrong with me if I can't feel comfortable against that lineup... they're one of the weakest teams in baseball." Next, we have a video of a college baseball (PING!) player faking a hit by pitch on a pitch that clearly came nowhere close to him, which is hilarious. Finally, the Angels start playing like a group of scrubs. Classic stuff, really is.

And then we've got the original "I guess Operation Shutdown also involves Cocaine," April 22nd, 2006. Many of you may recall when Pirate Derek Bell claimed that, unless the Pirates gave him a spot on the roster which he clearly, (previous season's avg: .173), didn't deserve, he wouldn't engage in "competition" for a spot. This was a short post so I recommend checking it out. But because I can't resist, here's what went down after:

Bell went AWOL from the Pirate Ship and was released two days later. Operation Shutdown was in its 49th month when Bell was pulled over and the cops found a "warm crack pipe" in the car. Looks like Operation Shutdown just became Operation Go to Jail. As the SuperFreak himself once said, "Cocaine...is a hell of a drug." And I'll never miss a chance to work that in.

So there you have it. The best screw ups just make for the best humor.

Kazmir, Cubs, Duffy, and College Baseball Lying - May 19th, 2006
I guess Operation Shutdown also involves Cocaine - April 22nd, 2006
Take a look; you'll never see a worse team than the Royals - May 25th, 2006
Yankees SP, Friday in Review - May 27th, 2006

Mark Teixeira and the Rangers

When is Mark Teixeira going to hit a Home Run? Here is my conversation with my fantasy baseball competitor and brother...

Me: Ah yes, Mark's up, bases juiced, no outs.
Dave: STRIKE OUT
Me: Nuh uh... great, skies one to left, and out at the plate. You've got to be kidding me, double play, and with Kenny Lofton too.
Dave: BETTER TRADE THAT GUY.
Me: Not his fault Kenny plays like he's on the wrong side of 40...

Except I feel like it is his fault. The Rangers had the bags full with no outs and they walked off without scoring a run. And don't tell me Mark was trying to hit a sac fly, because who does that with no outs in the top of the first? This guy has to seriously pick up his game. Dave offered me Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Markakis for Tex. I didn't take it. Simple word of advice to any fantasy beginners out there - whoever gets the best player 'wins' the trade. Two good players are not worth one great one, because they take up twice as much room on your roster. You would be surprised how many people ignore this rule. Either way, Nick Markakis has a cannon. Guy could throw out a laser beam trying to stretch a single into a double. And thank goodness the kid plays right field, because you know what that means - we are going to see him throw a guy out at 1st base. Ten bucks it happens to Frank Thomas. He'll hit a blooper in front of Nicky, put his head down, and run to the bag. Meanwhile, Nick scoops it up and lets loose with a Super Crow Hop throw to first, Thomas is out. Imagine the look of shock and disbelief on Biggy's face when that goes down. Unfortunately, such plays are not awarded points in our fantasy league. A few bizzaro leagues award points for assists though...

A little follow up on that Indians - Texans game - Kameron Loe, who is still on the Rangers, still 9 feet tall, and still not living up to his potential, gave up a 3-run Shot to Trot. Loe is getting a decent start on this season so far - 3.29 ERA in 13.2 innings - but I said it last year and I will say it again - the Rangers don't care about pitching. They will leave this guy in here no matter what he does. Like last year when he went with a 5.86 ERA in 15 games. After your young talent puts up a season like that, it seems wrong to just chuck him back into the starting roto. But he's only 25, so I guess they're thinking he'll break out soon enough. Of course, that is what the minor leagues are for. Unless you want to take the Ranger's route and just demoralize the crap out of the guy until he matures. I had the same complaint about the Tigers last year when they threw Justin Verlander into the rotation. I had seen the kid pitch and I didn't think he was ready. He proved me wrong. But that kid had lights out stuff. Kameron Loe can only fall back on his massive mound presence.

It's great to see the comments starting to stack up around here again. I have yet to see a comment for the Mariner's Payroll post I wrote, which makes me sad. That's the first post I've really been proud of writing since I got back, so I'm asking you guys to check it out. It's "funny and interesting" according to Kevin. So dive in! Saif, good to see you at BHGM. If I understand your comment, you're saying that the team with the most starts from their original rotation will win the rotation. I like it. Except this theory has a major flaw - it assumes that the starting rotation is a good one. If you've got a rotation of Kameron Loe, The Padilla Flotilla, Brandon McCarthy, Robinson Tejeda and Kevin Millwood, you aren't going to go very far - even if they never miss a single start. Surprisingly, there really is a team in the Major Leagues trying to pull this off - the Texas Rangers. It's funny... because I said the exact... same... thing... last year. And Joseph, thanks for the comment. You see, that's all I'm asking from you guys - a quick, 'good post, keep it up. Huddy's the man.' That's all we need to see around here. So don't get embarrassed if that's all you can contribute. Just be happy you could add something. One last update on that Ranger's game - they're down 5-1 now, and Tex just went another 0 fer. He's now 0-2 on that game... Leave your comments boys.

"This is our year!" - April 6th, 2006
The Mariners' Payroll is really $107 Million? - April 24th, 2007

Birthday Bash Flashbacks! Royals and Yankees

BHGM's second birthday bash is Sunday, April 29th! That will still, technically, be the weekend, so let's all celebrate! This is a perfect opportunity for me to bring up a lot of fun posts from the last couple years. I'm going to skip the obvious ones, such as Manny's greatest play of all time, which has evolved into it's own separate entity on the web, (Google: "greatest play of all time.") Anyway, for the next week or so I am going to throw out some surprises like this, in addition to our regular postings. You lucky readers!

Here's two posts I wrote last year that are perfect for now. The first one is entitled, "Take a look; you'll never see a worse team than the Royals." I wrote a lot about the Royals last year, but this is probably my favorite short quip at them.

Next is "Yankees SP, Friday in Review," where we looked at potential starters that the Yankees  should acquire. This is especially interesting given where these guys actually ended up, who we did get before the trade deadline last year, and the current situation of our pitching. For added fun, I've added some Wonder Years style updates to the post that really hammer those points home. You can pretty much skip the rest of the post, and just read the bold, I was kind of long-winded last year. Anyway, the best part of this post is the video at the end. I'm just going to go ahead and repost that part right here, as you're all apt to not actually click on any link I post.

Kids these days. They really like to set up basketball rims by their trampolines and dunk like Michael. Here's the thing - jumping too high can sometimes be a bad thing. Things can happen when you jump over the rim that shouldn't happen. By the way, when we're injured, can we not lay motionless and moan? What happened to walking it off? It would also be nice if this kid's friends hadn't run away and abandoned him to the elements. However, the cameraman laughing at him is perfectly acceptable behavior.

The Greatest Play of All Time - February 28, 2006
Take a look; you'll never see a worse team than the Royals - May 25th, 2006
Yankees SP, Friday in Review - May 26th,2006

However many wins Tim Hudson finishes this yeah with, feel free to add one.

Well here's what happened. Huddy, (who, as you may remember, we discussed recently,) had a real gem going. Whole sha-bang. 8 innings, 12 K's (12!), 6 hits. Now we are entering the 9th and dude has a pitch count the wrong side of 100. The Braves are up 3-0 against the Marlins. On the one hand, it is the Marlins, and you've got Huddy on the mound and, after all, your closer is Bob Wickman. On the other hand, it's only a 3 run lead, and Huddy is north of 100 chucks on the night. So if you're Bobby Cox, do you keep Huddy in and let him go for the complete game shutout, or do you pull him for Big Bobby? Well Cox chose to keep Huddy in, who promptly gave up three consecutive singles. Now, with the bags juiced and no outs, he reverts to Plan B, and pulls Huddy for the Wickman. Well that was a smart idea. Miguel Olivo then doubled, scoring two runs. Wickman intentionally walks Borchard, re-loading the bases. Now it's 3-2, Braves. Wickman then throws in three consecutive balls to Josh Willingham, all three of which looked, from the Game Day, to be in the dirt. He somehow pulled back to strike out Josh.  Just when you thought the fire might be dying down, Amezega singles, bringing in the tying run. Dan Uggla's up, and Wickman throws a wild one in the dirt to bring home the winning run. Fantastic.

Hudson's line before the 9th:
8 IP - 12 K - 6 H - 0 ER
Hudson's line after the 9th:
8 IP - 12 K - 9 H - 3 ER

Now, I could really go on a tear about this... except that Bob Wickman is a great guy - from personal experience (you're going to want to go near the bottom of that post for this story) - and Bobby Cox is probably one of the greatest managers this century. So, I guess you could chalk it up to that simple point-counterpoint argument we had at the top of the post. Cox just figured it was worth the gamble to leave Huddy in. However, when Hudson allowed that first single, he should have been pulled. You don't throw a guy like Bob Wickman in the mix when you've got the bags loaded, no outs, and a meager 3-run lead. If you've got Francisco Cordero , (8 saves, 17 K's, 0 ER, 9.1 IP), then you make that move. But not with Bobby Wickman. The L goes to Wickman, thank goodness, but the W stays away from Huddy. And, the three runs Wickman let score stay with Huddy as well. Just not right.

Braves v. Mets, Yankees v. Sox - April 21st, 2007
Mailbag: Cleveland Indians - March 30th, 2006

The Mariner's Payroll is really $107 million?

The Mariners 2007 payroll amounts to $107 million. That's the 6th highest in the league. That's incredible. Now, before you start spouting about how the Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball, and they don't win the World Series, understand this - I'm not saying that the Mariners should win the World Series. However, it would be nice if they could at least smell contention in one of the weakest divisions in the league. It would be nice if $107 million bought you, I don't know, a .500 record? One could say that it's early in the season. You can still turn things around, right? Well... we will get to that in a minute. Next comes the argument that your payroll is your investment. You have to wait for your investment to mature... unless it is already very, (33+ years) mature. I don't see any of these working out, but for the sake of the previous two points, let's look at last year. The Mariners had a payroll of $88 million, which was 11th in MLB, (but a mere $11 million from the 6-spot,) and finished 78-84, 15 games back of first place. In fact, the last time the Mariners finished closer than 15 games back was in 2003, when they won 93 games and finished only 3 games back of the A's. So, with this information in hand, you would expect that the additional $19 million spent by GM Bill Bavasi would be spent on some pretty significant improvements to the club. You should be expecting some pretty good things from this team this year, right? Now let's dig a little deeper.

For the sake of reference, let's take a broader look at the 2007 Payroll Standings.
New York Yankees - $195 mil - Good bet to win their division.
Boston Red Sox - $143 mil - Should finish 2nd in a very difficult division.
NY Mets - $116 mil - Should win the division. If not, will win a lot of games finishing 2nd.
LA Angels - $109 mil - If they don't win, they come close. Colon is making $16 mil.
LA Dodgers - $108 mil - Should take the weak NL West.
Seattle Mariners - $107 mil - Once again, a lock to finish last place in the weak AL West.

Does that $107 million now seem a bit more suspicious? Where, you may ask yourself, is this $107 million going?

Richie Sexson - $15.5 Million
This was a pretty bad waste of jack. Sexson, who is 32 years old, has never finished with a batting average higher than .279 while playing in more than 60 games. The Mariners signed him after his 2004 season, in which he played 23 games and finished with a .233 average. In 2005, he batted .263, but hit 39 HR and knocked in 121 runs. Not bad. However, the most similar batter to Sexson that year was Paul Konerko, who made just $8.75 million. Even after he carried the White Sox to a World Series title, he was signed in 2006 for $12 million. He is also two years younger than Sexson. Alright, so now you can make the argument that it takes more money to bring a good player into a bad team. Kind of like reverse economies of scale. Maybe so. But still - in the good world, Sexson is signed for $11 million, tops. Make it an incentive-laden contract if you have to, but he simply isn't worth that much.
Adrian Beltre - $12.9 Million
Wow. If Sexson snuck his hand into the cookie jar, then Beltre ran off with the whole thing. At least Beltre was coming off a good year in 2004. We looked at why this was a bad decision (halfway down,) a year back. The Dodgers had been sitting on Beltre, waiting for him to develop for years and years. Finally, he goes nuts and hits 48 HR - nearly three times his previous average. Stats went berserk all across the board for this dude. Then, mysteriously enough, the Dodgers make no attempts to re-sign him when he demands big jack. Not taking the hint, the Mariners give the guy millions... and he falls back into his typical, .250 average, .300 OBP, 20 homer self. Wonderful. Way to blow the bank, Bavasi. In his defense, Beltre was coming off a huge year. One he has no chance of ever, ever repeating, but big nonetheless.
Ichiro Suzuki - $12.5 Million
No argument here. This team is nothing without Ichiro.
Jarrod Washburn - $9.9 Million
Another Beltre situation. Jarrod had an ERA of 4.43 in 2003, and 4.64 in 2004... but managed a 3.20 in 2005, after which he was promptly picked up by the Mariners. So there are two ways to look at this. Either he had two off years in '03, and '04, (and pretty much every year of his career besides 2002,) and the 2005 performance is the real Jarrod Washburn. Or, he had a weird year in 2005, and the other nine years are the real Jarrod. I would go with the second choice. Bavasi, needless to say, went with the first. Last year, Jarrod won 8 games and finished with an ERA of 4.67 for the Mariners.
Jeff Weaver - $8.3 Million
Has anybody, ever, in the history of the world, done less to earn more? Weaver had one good year in 2002, where he finished with an ERA under 4. He has been cashing in on that year, and on his supposed upside, ever since. I'm pretty sure he has been making about $9 million everywhere he goes. And he keeps turning in these 4.20+ ERA years. Good going, Jeff.
Jose Vidro - $7.5 Million
$7.5 Million for a DH who has only hit more than 20 HR once, six years ago? A guy who's only knocked in more than 65 runs twice? Who is also 32 years old? According to baseball-reference.com, the most statistically similar batter to Vidro is this guy, Todd Walker. Todd just got called up from the AAA club to the big league Athletics on April 1st, and is making $450,000 this year. So you over paid by $7 million. No big deal, right? Actually. that's 7 million dollars. Take Travis Hafner. He's a great guy to build a team around. Young, good guy, seems like a tough worker, puts up great numbers. He's making $4.5 million. Of course, when his contract runs out he'll cash in for at least $12 mill. But if you're looking for value...
Miguel Batista - $6.0 Million
Yeah. That Miguel Batista. The one with the career 4.54 ERA.
Felix Hernandez - $420,000
Felix is 2-1. He has 18 K's in 17.1 IP. He has an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 0.69. However, after pitching just .1 Innings against the Twins and giving up 3 runs, he was yanked... straight onto the DL. Understand that this man was responsible for two of your five wins. So, what happens now?

Now Felix should be back by May 4th. But still... You've got J.J. Putz, ($2.7 million,) who has yet to get a save. And by the way, is Putz really the best name for a closer? In fact, he has yet to pitch in a save situation. Furthermore, the Mariners are now on a six game losing streak. They've been losing games all week!

Yankees
Now, how about your boy Igawa? He gave up a monster blast to Baldelli that, "landed 20 rows deep," according to CBS's Sergio Gonzalez. He gave up 7 runs to an awful Devil Rays team. See guys, this is what I meant when I said that this rotation wouldn't work out. Seven runs to the D Rays? If there's a team in the AL that you can just sit back and mail it in against, it's the Devil Rays and the Royals. When you play these guys, you take your day off. Or you drop your appeal on your two-game suspension. Or you play around with your lineup. But you don't send out your scheduled starter and get 7 runs dropped on you. Bright side? A-Rod had two more home runs. Good because that gives him 14 HR and 1,300 RBI in 18 games. Bad because, well, it's not really bad at all, except that we don't want him to use himself up. He's got more HR than quite a few teams do right now. Do you understand, seriously, how insane this guy is right now? It's like he's playing a video game. He's on god mode. And, he is trying to steal Jeter's boyfriends. Honestly, I could hit maybe 90 HR with A-Rod when I played a full season of MVP 2004 for X-Box. I could also win 30 games with Roy Halladay and a .32 ERA. I was very good, and it was very easy. Alex is on pace to beat those numbers. Now, on pace really means, "isn't going to happen," in April. But still... I believe he has now broken the record for HR and RBI in April. And there are still six days left! Yes and, regarding the picture... got A-Rod to sign that in 2005. And the lower right is a Woody Williams one. And of course, The Kid (when he was with the Mariners, how fitting) in the left. And in back is a picture of Jeter making a very Jeterian dive into the stands during that Sox game back in July of '04. I don't know if I would call it a shrine, but...

Nats owner news, Royals, Mariners, and big news - May 4th, 2006
Dude, it's time for a Yankee post - April 11th, 2007
Alex Rodriguez Trying To Steal Jeter's Boyfriends (Deadspin) - April 23rd, 2007