Monday, June 26, 2006

Mid-Season Division Overviews

Finally back from Chicago - this time for good. It was a rough three weeks, really. I haven't been able to follow much of baseball at all, so it's gonna be tough getting back into the swing of things. Luckily, I have four days off* - in a row! - so that should make it a little easier. I haven't had that much vacation time from work and school for more than a year. As for today's post - and we will be back to the normal daily post routines (except for weekends, which are always a little touch and go,) I'm going to talk about a few things that are less-than-current, since, well... as I said before, I haven't been following the game as intently as I should be the last three weeks. But I'm going to try to hit on each division.

*- Not true. Got called in to work on Sunday for 5 hours.

AL Central
How about the Tigers? Are they for real? The White Sox have won nine in a row, and are still in second place in the AL Central. And the Tigers have 51 wins by late June. That's a September number, not a June number. It's looking like, barring a major collapse, the Tigers may be going to the playoffs this year. Shh, it's still early. See, the BPS will tell you that the Tigers aren't going to the playoffs this year because they've had an easy schedule. Here's the thing. The AL Central is already a race for third. Minnesota has won nine of their last 10 games - and are still 11 games back. Cleveland is 17 back with a record of 33-41 - hardly what I expected from a club I said could make a legitimate run at a playoff spot this season. And the Royals... oh the Royals. They're 23-50, good for 26 games back. However, the standings reveal that they've won seven of their last 10. Are you kidding? When I left for Chicago three weeks ago, I don't think the Royals even had seven wins total. What a bad team... Finally, it looks as though -- for now -- we might actually see an AL Central team take the wild card. This is special only because, for the last several years, the Wild Card has been the Red Sox's ticket to the post season. The fact that that this may not happen is, to me, remarkable. Then again, there's a lot of that going around this year, (see NL East).

AL East
Things look pretty much the same as they did when I left. Yankees 2.5 games back, with a bunch of guys still on the DL. The Sox are on an 8-game win streak, and as soon as they drop that and get cold, they can sit back and watch the train go by. Meaning, Yankees fly right into first place. Toronto is just four games back, which is impressive -- considering they have been without one of their biggest free-agent signees, A.J. Burnett. Is he still afraid of throwing the ball, or what's going on with him? Halladay -- your 2006 Cy Young Winner, I maintain -- has been on his usual tear throughout the League. He's 9-2 and has won eight of his last nine decisions. Because I've been away from my computer for so long, I can't offer much insight on the Yankees and Red Sox - like I said earlier, it looks much the same as it did to me three weeks ago. The Sox have won 8 straight and they're only 2.5 games up. That's a 3-day lead. Nothing too special, and it is only June, lest we forget. I hear that Gary and Matsui both received promising news, (whatever that may be,) and as soon as they get back we should start running away with the division again.

AL/NL West
Does it matter what I say here? All the clubs in the NL West had a talk with those in the AL West. 'Look, if you play bad, we'll play bad, and no one will look bad.' All 9 teams in the two West divisions have records below .550, (about 41 wins at this point). The A's (SI's 2nd best MLB team going into the year, as we have ridiculously continued to point out throughout this season) are 41-34, for first place in the AL/NL West. The Angels are last, with a 34-41 (.453) record. In other words, there are no great teams, but there are no immensely terrible teams either. Now, there are a few ways to look at this. One is to say that all the teams are slightly above-average, and so they're just beating up on each other. This is not true. Rather, all 9 teams are extremely mediocre and while there is no runaway, (such as the Tigers or White Sox,) there are no terrible teams either, such as the Royals or Pirates. See, this is pure luck. All the teams happen to be average teams. Great, what's that get you? Average attendance, and below-average performance against the other teams in the league. Spectacular.

But to get into some detail; the Angels have totally collapsed this year. Their offense, which used to be great, (think about two or three years ago,) is now in a complete state of disarray. They've scored 339 runs, 2nd to last in the league - behind, who else, but the KC Royals, with 313. And you can't point to Vlad and say that his numbers have declined, he's aged, he can't carry the team anymore. No one has said it yet, but I'm sure they will before the end of the year. Well, here are the facts - Vlad, who recently turned 30, is seeing some decline in his numbers. So we're halfway through the year, and he has 10 doubles. In 2004, he hit 40. In 2005, when he only played 141 games due to a shoulder injury he suffered while making a stupid slide at home, he hit 30. And now he's on pace to hit 20. But that's all pointless. The truly interesting stats, for him, are his OBP and AVG. Vlad's career OBP is .387, yet it is just .326 so far this year. His average is at .290, down from his typical .322. His slugging is at .490, a significant drop from his career.581. But, back to the original question - is Vlad aging, or is something else happening? I think it's a little bit of both. His numbers - which aren't really that much lower - are probably the result of playing on a poor team as much as they are of being older. And now you say, 'but the Angels aren't that bad.' Maybe not, but they're terrible if you look at their expectations. People are asking questions and attendance is (probably) down. Either way, that makes for a bad vibe in the clubhouse, if you will. And that, I believe, only makes matters worse - it makes it harder to perform when everyone is asking you why you aren't. A bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, if you will.

Meanwhile, in the NL West, we have... today it is... the Dodgers, on top with a 40-35 record. As has been previously stated on numerous occasions at BHGM, they can pretty much start printing playoff tickets now. 5 Games above .500? That's a mountain the rest of the division really can't climb.

NL East
Well, I'm not sure what's going on here. I know that when I left three weeks ago, the Braves were about 5 games back of the Mets. Maybe, I really don't know. The Marlins were the second-worst team in MLB, behind the Royals. Now, and follow me closely here, they're 8 games back of .500 and in 3rd place. Now, forget for a moment that the Mets are so far out in front that third place (13.5 games back,) second place (11.5 games back,) and fifth place, (15.5 games back,) are all the same. Try to forget about that. Now, the Marlins are in third, and they're 32-40. Seriously, they must have won every game they played since I left for Cincinnati (and then for Chicago,) four weeks ago. In fact, on June 1st - the date I left - the Marlins were 17-34. So, in 25 days, they've won 15 games and lost 6. What a clip! Meanwhile, the Braves went from 28-26 and 5 games back to 32-44. That means they've gone 4-18. How far away is Atlanta from Kansas City, exactly?

NL Central
Well here's another interesting story that I would've liked to include closer to the NL West, but it just didn't work out that way. Regular readers already know what I'm about to bring up, but here goes. Name one of two players the Pirates received when they traded away a fellow named "Jason Schmidt" in 2001. Answer: Ryan Vogelsong. The other player was Armando Rios, who started 55 games for the Pirates. Anyway, back to Ryan Vogelsong. He was never a good pitcher, but he has remained on the Pirates roster. And now, CBS Sportsline has the following to say about him in their nifty fantasy notes:

News: Pittsburgh RHP Ryan Vogelsong, who has allowed at least one baserunner in each of his 20 relief appearances, did not pitch in the weekend series at Los Angeles.
Analysis: Vogelsong should only be active in leagues that reward negative play. Even there, the fact that he is not being used makes him obsolete.

Could you be any tougher on the guy? He's a stud on the negative play team. Great. Then again, his career ERA is 5.86, and you gave up Jason Schmidt to get him. Surprisingly enough, Dave Littlefield, who made the deal to acquire Ryan, is still the GM in Pittsburgh. Now, is there any stronger way for the Pirates to tell their fans they have no desire to win than by keeping Littlefield around? During his five-year reign, the Pirates have consistently been one of the worst teams in the league. In 2001, they rang in the brand new PNC Park by losing 100 games. In 2002, it was 89 games. 2003 was 87, and 2004 was 89. in 2005, in was 95 games. They've gone nowhere, and are currently riding an 11-game losing streak as they head in to play the White Sox and Tigers. At least the Pittsburgh fans have the All Star game to look forward to... that game counts for more than possibly any other game ever played at PNC Park. That is, the AL will be taking home field advantage again.

And how about the Cardinals - they've quietly, (since no one ever wants to gang up on the Cardinals, and for good reason -- how would you feel if you lived in Missouri?) gone on a six-game losing streak. That puts them at 42-32, and only two games up of the Reds. It's interesting that when Derrek Lee went down, everyone talked about how silly the Cubs were for centering their offense around one guy. No one seemed to notice that the Cardinals were centered on the same philosophy. Oh, that's right. The Cardinals have a strong supporting staff for Albert on the bench, and they also have pitching. Unless the Cubs define Kerry Wood and Mark Prior as 'pitching,' there is a difference. Both Pujols and Lee are now back, by the way. However, that doesn't mean that the Cubs' season isn't over, because it still is. The latest news on Kerry Wood - and this is an accurate quote, I didn't make this up - an MRI on Wood's shoulder revealed "no significant concerns or any kind of significant issue or injury or anything like that... the MRI, in Dr. Kremchek's terms, stated it was pristine, that the labia repair looked as if it was completely intact, looked like it had healed nicely and perfectly," said Cubs trainer Mark O'Neal. Yet, 'there is still no timetable for his return.' So let me get this straight; Wood went to the doctor, and the doctor told him he was perfectly healthy, and that everything was in order. In fact, it was perfect and pristine. Yet, no one has any idea how much longer it will be before he pitches again. Is this some sort of joke?

Anyway, that's the wrap up for the divisions. It took me Friday night, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday to write this, so some of it may be out of date - but I did my best. In any case, I'm going to try to get back into the groove. I've got a lot of catching up to do, and I'm mostly running around all day. But we should be completely back to normal in about a week I think. Anyway, that's it for now. It'd be nice to see some comments but I can understand if we don't have the readers back yet.

Mailbag: Cleveland Indians - March 30, 2006
Labels: Kansas City Royals - Various

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