Sunday, August 3, 2008

Todd Jones has some advice for you

todd jones As you may be aware, Todd Jones was recently removed from the closer's role with the Tigers and place on the Disabled List. Jones, who managed to blow only 3 saves while earning his 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, has some advice for those youngsters out there who want to succeed where he failed. "If I could recommend one thing," Jones opined, "it would be: Don't get old."

Thanks, Todd, for the valuable life lesson. Pausing time will usually get you out of those trouble spots. Jones, who was put in the DL with tendonitis of the shoulder variety, is the Tiger's deputy Timekeeper, clocking in at 40 years of age; (Kenny Rogers, at 43, is the real Father Time on this team.) I will be the first to admit to sending text messages to the tune of, "We're up by one and they just brought Jones. Uh oh." Let us critically analyze Jones' season here. His 5.05 ERA is atrocious. But how much damage could he have possibly done to the team if he only blew three saves?

Jones earned 4 wins in addition to his 18 saves; all 4 wins came after Jones preserved a tie game in the top of the 9th inning, and the Tigers took the lead in the bottom. So, in effect, these are super saves. In these appearances, plus his successful saves, Jones allowed only 3 ER in 21 IP. This gives him an ERA of 1.29 -- not bad at all. Then there are the blown saves. In the 2.1 innings he pitched that resulted in blown saves, he allowed 7 ER, for an ERA around 27. What sets the Tigers apart from other teams, however, is that on game day the offense is either hitting on all cylinders or still in bed. Jones has only been given 21 save opportunities two-thirds of the way through the season. Joe Nathan, of the Twins, has saved 30 games in 32 opportunities, despite his team winning only 6 more games. As a result, Jones has found himself pitching in many non-save situations. In the 19 games where Jones did not factor into the decision, he went 17.2 innings and allowed 13 ER. This makes for a 6.62 ERA. Does this prove the idea that closers can't pitch in non-save situations?

  IP App. ER
Wins + Saves 21 22 3
Blown Saves 2.1 3 7
Non-save sit. 17.2 19 13

One five-year old fan, while Jones was signing his baseball, remarked, "Look Mom, heart attack Jones is signing my ball!" Why is Jones one of the most heavily criticized men in Metro Detroit? I believe it is, simply, the result of Jones' tendency to put a lot of men on base, his collection of less-than-stunning stats (that 5.05 ERA,) and the fact that he seems to allow a run half the time he takes the field. Now, in my heart of hearts, I know that Todd Jones is not a good pitcher. I know he lets men on like a desperate lady of the night. But why do the numbers imply that he isn't really that bad?

The misconception here is that Jones is incapable of saving games. In 22 saves and wins, he gave up earned runs on three occasions, and only allowed only one run in each time. Of the 25 times Jones was handed the ball with Tigers tied or up by three or fewer runs, Jones did his job 22 times. Thats an 88% success rate. In those 25 appearances, he allowed 10 ER, for an ERA of 3.86. Not bad for a 40-year-old who Tiger Fan has essentially run out of town.

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