Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Mariner's Payroll is really $107 million?

bavasi2 The Mariners 2007 payroll amounts to $107 million. That's the 6th highest in the league. That's incredible. Now, before you start spouting about how the Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball, and they don't win the World Series, understand this - I'm not saying that the Mariners should win the World Series. However, it would be nice if they could at least smell contention in one of the weakest divisions in the league. It would be nice if $107 million bought you, I don't know, a .500 record? One could say that it's early in the season. You can still turn things around, right? Well... we will get to that in a minute. Next comes the argument that your payroll is your investment. You have to wait for your investment to mature... unless it is already very, (33+ years) mature. I don't see any of these working out, but for the sake of the previous two points, let's look at last year. The Mariners had a payroll of $88 million, which was 11th in MLB, (but a mere $11 million from the 6-spot,) and finished 78-84, 15 games back of first place. In fact, the last time the Mariners finished closer than 15 games back was in 2003, when they won 93 games and finished only 3 games back of the A's. So, with this information in hand, you would expect that the additional $19 million spent by GM Bill Bavasi would be spent on some pretty significant improvements to the club. You should be expecting some pretty good things from this team this year, right? Now let's dig a little deeper.

For the sake of reference, let's take a broader look at the 2007 Payroll Standings.
New York Yankees - $195 mil - Good bet to win their division.
Boston Red Sox - $143 mil - Should finish 2nd in a very difficult division.
NY Mets - $116 mil - Should win the division. If not, will win a lot of games finishing 2nd.
LA Angels - $109 mil - If they don't win, they come close. Colon is making $16 mil.
LA Dodgers - $108 mil - Should take the weak NL West.
Seattle Mariners - $107 mil - Once again, a lock to finish last place in the weak AL West.

Does that $107 million now seem a bit more suspicious? Where, you may ask yourself, is this $107 million going?

Richie Sexson - $15.5 Million
This was a pretty bad waste of jack. Sexson, who is 32 years old, has never finished with a batting average higher than .279 while playing in more than 60 games. The Mariners signed him after his 2004 season, in which he played 23 games and finished with a .233 average. In 2005, he batted .263, but hit 39 HR and knocked in 121 runs. Not bad. However, the most similar batter to Sexson that year was Paul Konerko, who made just $8.75 million. Even after he carried the White Sox to a World Series title, he was signed in 2006 for $12 million. He is also two years younger than Sexson. Alright, so now you can make the argument that it takes more money to bring a good player into a bad team. Kind of like reverse economies of scale. Maybe so. But still - in the good world, Sexson is signed for $11 million, tops. Make it an incentive-laden contract if you have to, but he simply isn't worth that much.
Adrian Beltre - $12.9 Million
Wow. If Sexson snuck his hand into the cookie jar, then Beltre ran off with the whole thing. At least Beltre was coming off a good year in 2004. We looked at why this was a bad decision (halfway down,) a year back. The Dodgers had been sitting on Beltre, waiting for him to develop for years and years. Finally, he goes nuts and hits 48 HR - nearly three times his previous average. Stats went berserk all across the board for this dude. Then, mysteriously enough, the Dodgers make no attempts to re-sign him when he demands big jack. Not taking the hint, the Mariners give the guy millions... and he falls back into his typical, .250 average, .300 OBP, 20 homer self. Wonderful. Way to blow the bank, Bavasi. In his defense, Beltre was coming off a huge year. One he has no chance of ever, ever repeating, but big nonetheless.
Ichiro Suzuki - $12.5 Million
No argument here. This team is nothing without Ichiro.
Jarrod Washburn - $9.9 Million
Another Beltre situation. Jarrod had an ERA of 4.43 in 2003, and 4.64 in 2004... but managed a 3.20 in 2005, after which he was promptly picked up by the Mariners. So there are two ways to look at this. Either he had two off years in '03, and '04, (and pretty much every year of his career besides 2002,) and the 2005 performance is the real Jarrod Washburn. Or, he had a weird year in 2005, and the other nine years are the real Jarrod. I would go with the second choice. Bavasi, needless to say, went with the first. Last year, Jarrod won 8 games and finished with an ERA of 4.67 for the Mariners.
Jeff Weaver - $8.3 Million
Has anybody, ever, in the history of the world, done less to earn more? Weaver had one good year in 2002, where he finished with an ERA under 4. He has been cashing in on that year, and on his supposed upside, ever since. I'm pretty sure he has been making about $9 million everywhere he goes. And he keeps turning in these 4.20+ ERA years. Good going, Jeff.
Jose Vidro - $7.5 Million
$7.5 Million for a DH who has only hit more than 20 HR once, six years ago? A guy who's only knocked in more than 65 runs twice? Who is also 32 years old? According to baseball-reference.com, the most statistically similar batter to Vidro is this guy, Todd Walker. Todd just got called up from the AAA club to the big league Athletics on April 1st, and is making $450,000 this year. So you over paid by $7 million. No big deal, right? Actually. that's 7 million dollars. Take Travis Hafner. He's a great guy to build a team around. Young, good guy, seems like a tough worker, puts up great numbers. He's making $4.5 million. Of course, when his contract runs out he'll cash in for at least $12 mill. But if you're looking for value...
Miguel Batista - $6.0 Million
Yeah. That Miguel Batista. The one with the career 4.54 ERA.
Felix Hernandez - $420,000
Felix is 2-1. He has 18 K's in 17.1 IP. He has an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 0.69. However, after pitching just .1 Innings against the Twins and giving up 3 runs, he was yanked... straight onto the DL. Understand that this man was responsible for two of your five wins. So, what happens now?

Now Felix should be back by May 4th. But still... You've got J.J. Putz, ($2.7 million,) who has yet to get a save. And by the way, is Putz really the best name for a closer? In fact, he has yet to pitch in a save situation. Furthermore, the Mariners are now on a six game losing streak. They've been losing games all week!

Yankees
Now, how about your boy Igawa? He gave up a monster blast to Baldelli that, "landed 20 rows deep," according to CBS's Sergio Gonzalez. He gave up 7 runs to an awful Devil Rays team. See guys, this is what I meant when I said that this rotation wouldn't work out. Seven runs to the D Rays? If there's a team in the AL that you can just sit back and mail it in against, it's the Devil Rays and the Royals. When you play these guys, you take your day off. ArodballOr you drop your appeal on your two-game suspension. Or you play around with your lineup. But you don't send out your scheduled starter and get 7 runs dropped on you. Bright side? A-Rod had two more home runs. Good because that gives him 14 HR and 1,300 RBI in 18 games. Bad because, well, it's not really bad at all, except that we don't want him to use himself up. He's got more HR than quite a few teams do right now. Do you understand, seriously, how insane this guy is right now? It's like he's playing a video game. He's on god mode. And, he is trying to steal Jeter's boyfriends. Honestly, I could hit maybe 90 HR with A-Rod when I played a full season of MVP 2004 for X-Box. I could also win 30 games with Roy Halladay and a .32 ERA. I was very good, and it was very easy. Alex is on pace to beat those numbers. Now, on pace really means, "isn't going to happen," in April. But still... I believe he has now broken the record for HR and RBI in April. And there are still six days left! Yes and, regarding the picture... got A-Rod to sign that in 2005. And the lower right is a Woody Williams one. And of course, The Kid (when he was with the Mariners, how fitting) in the left. And in back is a picture of Jeter making a very Jeterian dive into the stands during that Sox game back in July of '04. I don't know if I would call it a shrine, but...

Nats owner news, Royals, Mariners, and big news - May 4th, 2006
Dude, it's time for a Yankee post - April 11th, 2007
Alex Rodriguez Trying To Steal Jeter's Boyfriends (Deadspin) - April 23rd, 2007

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